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CL Crude Oil Analysis
Currently, crude oil is experiencing a high-level fluctuation driven by "geopolitical support + macro suppression." On one side, tensions in the Middle East are tight, with U.S.-Iran negotiations breaking down, the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, and 20% of global oil shipping routes at risk. The geopolitical premium firmly supports the market, preventing prices from falling sharply, with the 89 level holding steady; on the other side, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is clear, with Powell explicitly stating that without a decline in inflation, there will be no rate cuts. Coupled with the start of balance sheet reduction on April 14, the dollar continues to strengthen, suppressing the overall upward space for commodities, leading to significant resistance around 91.5–92, making it difficult to break through easily from high levels.
Technically, the previous high of 91.90 and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 91.21 form strong resistance, with a rebound followed by a retreat, indicating that the bullish momentum has been exhausted. Currently, the 90 level is just a consolidation zone, not a sign of stabilization.
Trading suggestion: 90.5–92.5 range, target 87–80.
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