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🚨 The probability that Jerome Powell will stay as Fed Chair has just surged to around 98% — what is the market saying?
Meanwhile, the “threats of dismissal” from Donald Trump seem to be just political statements.
💡 Reality:
The Fed Chair position is not as easy to “turn over” as a company CEO
Complex legal procedures + Fed’s independence = very strong barrier
The market understands this → Powell’s “resignation” probability is almost zero
📊 Notably:
It’s not Trump’s words, but the market’s reaction that is more trustworthy.
👉 When the probability reaches 98%, it means:
Confidence in monetary policy stability is returning.
⚠️In crypto or finance, don’t trade based on “political drama.”
Instead, look at probabilities, data, and cash flow reactions.
#Powell #Fed #Trump #Macro #Crypto