April 17 Bole Morning Analysis

Currently, the bullish and bearish factors in the gold market are intensifying, showing an overall pattern of intertwined fluctuations. From the negative side, the Middle East geopolitical conflict is gradually easing, and the risk aversion sentiment previously driven by tense situations is cooling down, significantly weakening gold’s safe-haven buying strength; at the same time, the latest US inflation data shows strong resilience, with inflation retreating slower than market expectations, directly leading to continued tightening of market expectations for Fed rate cuts, prolonging the rate hike cycle, which raises the short-term holding costs of gold and puts short-term pressure on gold prices.

However, from the support perspective, the US dollar index is showing a weak trend, combined with the market not fully dismissing the Fed’s rate cut expectations this year, providing solid support for gold prices. Overall, in the short term, gold prices lack the momentum for large-scale upward or downward moves, likely maintaining a high-range oscillation. Moving forward, continuous attention should be paid to developments in Middle East tensions, US inflation, and Fed policy statements, as these factors will be key to breaking the current consolidation pattern.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices remain in a high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating narrowly around 4795 in the early session. On the daily chart, gold has ended with a small bearish candle after a high-level sideways consolidation, indicating a slowdown in the short-term upward pace, but the overall upward channel remains intact, and the medium-term bullish trend has not changed, with the core bullish pattern still stable.

Regarding support and resistance in the short term, the 4770 level provides strong support, tested multiple times without effective breakdown, serving as an important short-term defense level for gold; the 15-minute chart shows that gold has completed a stabilization after a decline, entering a short-term oscillation and slight recovery phase. It is highly likely that subsequent rebounds will rely on key support levels, with attention to breakthroughs of upper resistance levels.

Trading Recommendations

Intra-day trading should mainly follow the core idea of buying on dips, gradually building long positions based on strong support below, with strict control of position size and risk:

1. Light long positions: When gold falls back to the 4785-4790 range, consider entering long positions lightly;
2. Gradual addition to longs: If gold further declines to the 4775-4785 range, add to long positions gradually;
3. Extreme averaging: Focus on opportunities to add longs around 4765-4775, and watch for stabilization signals near 4755 in extreme conditions, then consider adding positions after stabilization.

Target levels: The first short-term target is around 4820-4830. If gold can break through this resistance zone smoothly, hold further and aim for the 4855 level.

Personal Trend Judgment
Currently, gold prices are in a high-level oscillation stage driven by both fundamentals and technical factors. The medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged, but the short-term pace has slowed due to disruptions from Fed policy expectations. Blindly chasing highs is not recommended; buying on dips is a safer trading strategy. Strict stop-loss settings are necessary to guard against sudden geopolitical or inflation data changes that could trigger market volatility. If the key support at 4755 is effectively broken, traders should promptly adjust their trading approach to avoid risks of a unilateral decline. #黄金 #Spot Gold#黄金 #外汇黄金