Caught some interesting action in coffee futures on Friday. Arabica ticked up slightly while robusta dropped, but both are basically consolidating after getting hammered the past few weeks. The dollar weakness gave things a little lift, but honestly the supply picture is what's really weighing on the market.

Brazil's forecast is massive - they're looking at a record 66.2 million bags for 2026, up 17% from last year. That's a lot of coffee hitting the market. Vietnam's also ramping up exports hard, jumping 38% year-over-year in January alone. When you've got both of the world's biggest producers flooding supply, prices naturally take a hit. Colombia's the only bright spot - their production actually fell 34% recently, which should help arabica at least. According to Barchart's commodity analysis, ICE inventories are also recovering after hitting multi-month lows, which is bearish pressure.

The USDA's expecting world production to hit a record 178.8 million bags next season, with robusta up over 10%. That's a lot of supply to digest. Brazil just reported their January exports dropped 42% though, which is one of the few things keeping prices from falling harder. Interesting to watch how this plays out - Barchart's been tracking these coffee moves pretty closely. Could see more downside if Vietnam keeps pushing exports like this.