The ETF Accumulation and Distribution Cycles and BTC Price

First In-Depth Study
Let's start with the conclusion: ETF and BTC prices are strongly correlated
This correlation should not be simply interpreted as price consistency
But should be understood through its underlying logic
1⃣ ETF represents the funds of large capital and institutional allocations
It can be understood as another form of smart money
How smart money profits from BTC price fluctuations provides us with important insights
2⃣ ETF accumulation and distribution
By analyzing historical data, we have identified very clear ETF accumulation and distribution cycles
Accumulation periods usually last 3-5 months, and distribution typically lasts 3 months
The last accumulation started in March 2025 and lasted until July 2025
Distribution began in October and continued until January 2026
3⃣ Has this round of accumulation started?
Starting from November 2025, there was a net outflow for 4 months, setting the longest continuous outflow record.
From the trend, outflows are gradually decreasing, indicating that accumulation has actually begun.
Net inflow appeared in March, though small, which can be seen as early accumulation.
We expect a larger inflow around April to May to confirm the continuation of accumulation.
Theoretically, this round of accumulation should last until June.
If so, it suggests that institutions may be accumulating in the first half of the year and distributing in the second half.