The US and Iran are now only pretending to have a ceasefire—while the real thing is testing each other. A temporary ceasefire is merely a stalling tactic, and the core contradictions between the two sides have not fundamentally been resolved—America wants Iran to stop its nuclear program, while Iran wants the US to lift sanctions and withdraw troops. The situation is unlikely to turn into a full-scale war, but tensions will likely remain, and after the ceasefire expires, conflicts are likely to flare up again. The Middle East—this “powder keg”—could explode at any moment.

The US-Iran situation is a double-edged sword for the crypto market. When the situation escalates, Bitcoin will rise in the short term, acting as “digital gold”; but once it triggers global panic and funds flow back into the US dollar, the crypto market will quickly plunge as well. More importantly, instability will push up oil prices and inflation, making the Federal Reserve unwilling to cut interest rates easily—this is real pressure on the crypto market, which relies on liquidity-driven gains. Overall, in the short term, the crypto market’s volatility will increase; it will be a cycle of up and down with no stable period in sight.

The current price is around $75,000. In the short term, it is very likely to see high-level consolidation with a bearish bias. The resistance at $76,000 is strong, making it difficult to break through. In the short term, the key support below $73,000 is crucial—if it breaks, prices will move toward the $71,000–$70,000 range, and at worst could return again to the recent bottom around the $65,000 area

$BTC