I just monitored some on-chain indicators and see that Bitcoin is showing quite concerning signs. The current price is around $74.36k, but many analyses suggest we haven't yet reached the true bottom of this cycle.

What caught my attention the most is data from Glassnode showing that long-term investors are selling off heavily. Specifically, on February 6th alone, they reduced their holdings by 245,000 BTC. Similar patterns also occurred in 2019 and mid-2021, and back then, the market typically moved sideways before entering a prolonged downtrend. Bitcoin's realized profit/loss ratio is also about to drop below 1, which historically often indicates widespread investor capitulation.

Another detail that stands out is that Bitcoin funding rates are deeply negative, the most since May 2023. The 7-day SMA has also just turned negative for the first time in nearly a year. According to analysts, these signals often appear at the bottom.

Many experts forecast that Bitcoin's bottom will form by the end of this year or early 2026, possibly in the $40,000–$50,000 range. Based on historical cycles, from the peak in October 2025 to the bottom, it could take about 12 months. Some other analyses suggest the bottom might appear sooner, around July this year. In any case, the market is still in a strong correction phase, and we need to closely monitor these indicators to catch the right timing.