HYPE Market Analysis:

1. Macroeconomic Trend Analysis: Divergence between volume and price, passive rally

Technical Perspective:
HYPE is currently in a passive upward phase. Although the price rebounded 108% from the low of $21 and reached a high of $45, technical patterns show signs of weakening upward momentum. The daily RSI shows a bearish divergence, with the price making new highs but momentum not following. The current price (around $40-$43.5) is testing a key resistance zone, and on-chain structure indicates that buying is not aggressive but passive acceptance.

News Perspective:
The market presents a typical pattern of "big players supporting the bottom, retail investors watching on the sidelines." On one hand, Hyperliquid's whales have closed most of their BTC/ETH long positions for profit (earning $50.42 million), though they still hold some ETH longs, overall strategy shifting toward contraction; on the other hand, KOLs like Arthur Hayes calling for a $150 target contrast sharply with the sluggish spot CVD (-$41.48 million). The rally mainly depends on passive demand from protocol revenue buybacks rather than spontaneous bullish market sentiment.

Key Conclusions:
In the short term, macro trends face downside pressure. If the price cannot break through the historical high near $59 with increased volume, there is a risk of forming a double top or a deep correction. The market is in a "optimistic expectation" versus "weak reality" battle window.

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2. Important Support and Resistance Levels

· First Resistance (Immediate target): $45.00 - $46.00 — This is the 2026 high test zone and a dense area for recent profit-taking.
· Core Bull-Bear Boundary: $50.70 - $51.00 — This is the technical bull-bear dividing line. If the real body candles stabilize here, the previous bearish logic invalidates, and a trend reversal is confirmed.
· First Support (Short-covering zone): $35.80 - $36.00 — Fibonacci resonance level and key volume-price support zone.
· Extreme Defense Level: $30.00 — Previous low start point; if broken, it indicates the end of the rebound trend.

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3. Specific Trading Strategies

Based on the above logic of "divergence at high levels" and "diminishing bullish momentum," a high-short/low-long oscillation strategy is recommended, with strict position control.

Strategy 1: Main Theme — Betting on a Pullback (High-Probability Strategy)

· Direction: Short
· Entry Range: $42.50 - $44.50
· Stop Loss: $45.50
· Logic: Only if a strong breakout above today’s high and stabilization occurs, the short thesis fails.
· First Take Profit: $38.50
· Second Take Profit (Target): $36.00
· Position Size: 2% - 3% (due to obvious divergence but trend not fully reversed, light short positions)

Strategy 2: Defensive Counterattack — Bouncing from Key Support (Left-side Strategy)

· Direction: Long
· Entry Condition: Price retraces to $36.00 - $36.50, with a 1-hour chart showing "pin bar" or "bullish engulfing" signals.
· Stop Loss: $35.50
· Logic: Falling below this key support opens downside space.
· Take Profit Target: $40.00 - $41.00
· Position Size: 1.5%

Strategy 3: Trend Confirmation — Right-side Chase (Low Probability Event)

· Direction: Long
· Trigger Condition: 4-hour candle closes above $46.00 (breakout of the upper boundary of the range).
· Entry Point: $46.20
· Stop Loss: $44.50
· Target: $49.50
· Note: This strategy offers a lower risk-reward ratio and is only a backup, with the lowest priority.

Summary: The current price is in a narrow oscillation zone with high risk of false breakouts. It is recommended to treat $44.50 as a boundary; until a clear breakout occurs, maintain a bearish outlook on rallies, and patiently wait for the price to return to the $36 area before considering medium- to long-term longs.