Gold

1. Price Overview: Rebounds after rallying to a high; 4820 becomes a short-term bull-bear dividing line

On April 14, international spot gold closed near $4,838 per ounce, and during the session it briefly tested the critical resistance level of $4,800. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the June gold futures contract closed at $4,864.50, up more than 2% on the day. Entering the Asian trading session on April 15, gold prices moved into consolidation after briefly touching a four-week high, and currently are trading around the $4,820 area, with the upward momentum slowing. Bulls and bears are showing a clear back-and-forth around the $4,820 level.

2. Core Drivers: US dollar weakness combined with rate-cut expectations in sync

This round of gains is supported by two core factors. First, the US Dollar Index remains under sustained pressure. Expectations for a warming in US-Iran relations have risen, pushing the dollar down to a six-week low, which directly supports gold prices. Second, the US March PPI rose only 0.5% month-on-month, significantly below the expected 1.1%, easing market concerns about runaway inflation and reigniting rate-cut expectations. In addition, since April, global gold ETF holdings have increased by 25 tons, showing that capital is quietly flowing back. Analysts point out that the core driving force behind the current gold rally has shifted from purely “safe-haven” demand to “interest-rate expectation trading,” meaning price action is more sensitive to economic data.

3. Technical Setup: The bullish structure has not been broken, but momentum shows signs of slowing

From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour timeframe, gold prices briefly pierced below the 200-period moving average before pulling back. At the same time, trading volume contracted, indicating that buyers chasing higher prices are becoming more cautious. For key support levels, $4,756 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) forms the main line of defense, while $4,740 (the 10-day moving average) is the bottom line for whether the rebound pattern can be sustained. For resistance levels above, the $4,850–$4,900 range is the key area to break through. If price can effectively hold above the 200 moving average and break $4,912, upside room may be further opened, with the target pointing to the $5,000 round-number level.

4. Comprehensive Outlook

In the short term, gold is in a stage of “bullish trend + short-term divergence.” Overall it remains biased to the upside, but caution is needed when chasing rallies; the reference core trading range is $4,780–$4,855. In the medium term, central bank gold-buying demand is still there. Many institutions maintain a bullish stance, and UBS expects gold prices to rise to $5,900–$6,200 this year. The key variables for future price action are substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations and the marginal changes in subsequent US inflation data. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战