Date: April 15, 2026 (Singapore Time)

Short-term Impact (Next 1–7 Days)

1)
· Event: The second day of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and related shipping access, with the Strait of Hormuz situation remaining tense.
· Impact: Energy supply uncertainty persists → oil prices trade in a range at high levels, gold is supported, and global equity markets’ risk appetite declines.
· Focus: The scope of blockade enforcement (whether it expands to full interception); changes in the number of ships that actually pass.

2)
· Event: The U.S. says it may resume negotiations with Iran in the next two days, releasing a signal of near-term easing.
· Impact: The market moves into a “conflict + negotiation game” phase → oil prices and risk assets see rapid back-and-forth trading (two-way volatility in both directions).
· Focus: Whether the negotiation timetable and location are confirmed; whether temporary ceasefire or concession terms emerge.

3)
· Event: The U.S. decides not to extend the offshore oil sanctions exemptions for Iran, tightening energy sanctions across the board.
· Impact: Global crude oil supply is further squeezed → positive for oil and gas and coal, negative for airlines, manufacturing, and high–energy-consumption industries.
· Focus: The actual magnitude of the decline in export volumes; whether alternative supply emerges (OPEC/Russia).

4)
· Event: A “limited resumption of passage” appears in the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 20 merchant vessels having already passed through or attempted to do so.
· Impact: The market shifts from pricing “complete disruption” to “restricted passage” → oil prices jump higher in the short term and then fall back into consolidation.
· Focus: Whether passage becomes stable and normalized; changes in insurance and freight costs.

5)
· Event: Israel and Lebanon hold direct negotiations in Washington for the first time in decades, but Hezbollah refuses to acknowledge the outcome.
· Impact: The Middle East conflict becomes a “multi-front contest” → geopolitical risk becomes more complex, making it difficult for the market to form a one-sided expectation.
· Focus: Whether Hezbollah escalates military actions; whether the negotiations break down.

Long-term Impact (Next Several Weeks–Several Months)

6)
· Event: The IMF warns that a potential Iran war could trigger global recession risks and downgrades growth expectations for major economies.
· Impact: The market begins to price in “stagflation” → commodities benefit, while growth stocks and high-valuation assets face headwinds.
· Focus: Revised GDP and inflation data across countries; central bank policy shifts (whether to stop rate cuts).

7)
· Event: The global energy shock has already transmitted to the European economy, and the UK’s 2026 growth forecast has been significantly lowered.
· Impact: European assets face pressure → European stocks and the euro are confronted with fundamental downside pressures, and capital may flow to energy-exporting countries.
· Focus: European fiscal stimulus and energy subsidy policies.

8)
· Event: Global food and fertilizer prices rise due to the Middle East conflict, significantly increasing agricultural costs.
· Impact: Imported inflation spreads → pressure rises for emerging markets, benefiting agricultural products and fertilizer sectors.
· Focus: Grain price indices, agricultural subsidy policies, and export restriction measures.

9)
· Event: The World Bank is preparing to provide $80–100 billion in assistance to address conflict shock impacts.
· Impact: The world enters a “crisis fiscal cycle” → debt expansion, with the long-term upward shift of the interest-rate center of gravity.
· Focus: Where funds are directed to (countries and sectors); whether sovereign debt risk is triggered.

10)
· Event: Europe plans to hold a summit to discuss the security of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route and restart plans.
· Impact: Global rules for energy transportation may be reshaped → long-term changes to shipping, insurance, and energy pricing systems.
· Focus: Whether a multi-country escort mechanism is formed; whether it evolves into a long-term military presence.