April 15th

Overall, under the dual influence of sustained macro bearish pressure and regulatory policy expectation battles, the market shows a weak recovery pattern. Technical rebound momentum is severely lacking, and the short-term trend remains oscillating and weak. Buying short positions on rallies remains the core trading strategy.

On the news front, the Federal Reserve continues to release hawkish comments, directly cooling market expectations of a rate cut in June. The risk-free rate remains high and rising, and market funds continue to flow into high-yield, stable assets, significantly suppressing Ethereum’s valuation and capital inflow strength. Moving forward, focus should be on the core PCE data due on April 30th. If the data fails to show signs of cooling, macro bearish factors will further persist, continuously pressuring the price. Meanwhile, the U.S. “Clear Act” enters a critical review window from April 21st to 25th. If the bill passes smoothly, it will bring positive regulatory valuation effects for Ethereum. However, the bill’s progress is currently uncertain, only creating a phase of market sentiment battles without substantial positive support. Coupled with the global decline in gold and oil, Japan’s central bank tightening liquidity through rate hikes, Ethereum overall lacks major positive catalysts, and upward space remains limited.

From a technical perspective on the 1-hour chart, Ethereum touched the 2370 resistance level intraday and quickly dropped to the 2301 support level. It then initiated a weak rebound, with small candlestick bodies during the rebound phase, indicating very weak bullish momentum, and the rebound lacked strength. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the price continues to operate below the midline at 2349.08, forming a strong short-term resistance at this level. The price has tested multiple times but failed to break through effectively. Although the KDJ indicator is in a low-turning state, the rebound momentum is scarce. Once the indicator recovers, it is very likely to turn weak again, fully confirming the essence of the weak recovery under news suppression. The probability of subsequent decline is much higher than that of rise.

Trading Suggestions

Rebound to 2370-2400, gradually establish short positions, targeting 2300-2250.