In recent days, the news that the private equity firm BlueOwl has announced the sale of assets worth $1.4 billion amid a liquidity crisis has sent ripples through financial markets. At first, it may sound like nothing more than a company news story, but among market observers, there are voices pointing out that it closely resembles the collapse of Bear Stearns’ hedge funds that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis.

Looking at the impact on the equity markets, BlueOwl’s stock price is down by about 14% just this week, and the drop is more than 50% year-to-date. Major private equity firms such as Blackstone, Apollo Global, and Ares have also experienced similarly steep declines. For investors who lived through 2008, this is a signal strong enough to bring that nightmare back to mind.

In August 2007, two hedge funds at Bear Stearns collapsed after suffering massive losses on subprime mortgage-backed securities. At the same time, BNP Paribas froze withdrawals, citing difficulties in valuing U.S. mortgage assets. The credit markets ground to a halt, and one event expanded into a global financial crisis. It is still difficult to judge whether BlueOwl’s current situation is that “first domino,” or simply a company-specific problem.

If a scenario in which history repeats itself truly unfolds, it could become a very intriguing development for Bitcoin investors. In fact, Bitcoin has deep ties to financial crises. On January 3, 2009, Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto embedded a message in the genesis block: “The finance minister stands on the brink of a second bailout for banks.” This was a headline from the London Times at the time—meaning Bitcoin was born against the backdrop of the government’s response to the 2008 financial crisis.

Back then, governments and central banks injected trillions of dollars into the economy. Bitcoin was conceived as a countermeasure to this unlimited expansion of money and a centralized financial system. In the short term, tightening credit conditions could adversely affect risk assets, including Bitcoin. Indeed, during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, Bitcoin experienced a sudden drop of about 70%. However, afterward, with large-scale monetary easing, Bitcoin rose from below $4,000 to levels above $65,000 within a year.

The current scenario could follow the same trajectory. Credit market stress, turmoil in the stock market, and ultimately, large-scale intervention by central banks. If that happens, Bitcoin may reach a moment where it recovers its original vision. Currently, the Bitcoin price is trading around $74,500, but how the financial situation develops is likely to be the key to the next scenario.