Market Overview for April 15: The Nasdaq hits ten consecutive gains, a record since 2021, and BTC breaks through $74,000

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Approaching All-Time Highs, Nasdaq Posts Ten Consecutive Green Days

On Tuesday, Wall Street surged again as triple positive news resonated—expectations for a second round of talks, better-than-expected PPI data, and strong bank earnings reports.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1-1.2%, already nearing the all-time high set at the end of January; it is only one step away from a new record. The Nasdaq jumped 1.8%, marking its tenth consecutive trading day higher—its longest streak since 2021. The Dow gained 285 points (+0.6%). All three major indices are now back in positive territory for the year.

Counting from the war’s low point on March 30, the S&P 500 has rebounded more than 10% in less than three weeks. The maximum drawdown during the war of 7% has been fully recovered, and the index is now breaking higher.

The day’s most important economic data was March PPI (Producer Price Index), which came in far better than expected. Overall PPI rose 0.5% month over month, significantly below the market’s forecast of 1.1%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose only 0.1%, also far below the expected 0.5%.

The significance of this data is that: the war has indeed pushed up energy prices (gasoline prices surged 15.7% month over month, and diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil are also rising), but outside of energy, price pressures are nowhere near as severe as the market had feared. This gives the market a key narrative anchor: inflation shocks may be mainly confined to the energy sector rather than spreading throughout the broader economy. If oil prices keep falling as talks progress, the “second-round transmission” of inflation could be contained.

On bank earnings, Citigroup’s Q1 results beat expectations, rising more than 1% in pre-market trading. Goldman Sachs, despite reporting the second-highest quarterly profit in history, fell 1.9% on Monday due to the “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley’s earnings reports will be released one after another this week. FactSet data shows the projected earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q1 was 12.6%; if realized, it would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Tech stocks continue to lead. After jumping 13% the previous day, Oracle kept rising, adding 5%, while Nvidia and Palantir extended their gains. Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer pointed out that the valuation premium on mega-cap tech stocks has fallen to levels close to the overall market, meaning tech stocks are shifting from “expensive to unreasonable” to “valuation is reasonable.”

At the Semafor World Economic Summit on Tuesday, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin delivered a cold assessment: “If the Strait is closed for six to twelve months, the world will fall into a recession, and there is no way to avoid it.” But he added that if the U.S. waits and acts only when Iran’s military capabilities are stronger, the consequences would be worse.

In a client report, Goldman Sachs pointed out an overlooked fact: since the war began, 6 of the 10 global G10 economies are now expected to raise interest rates in 2026, compared with only 3 before the conflict. This war has not only changed the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East—it has also changed the direction of global monetary policy.

Oil: Plunges 8% Back Below $100, the Power of a Second Round of Talks

Oil prices crashed nearly 8% on Tuesday, with WTI falling back below $100 per barrel.

The driver is expectations for a new round of talks. Although negotiations in Islamabad broke down over the weekend, Trump said on Monday that “the other side called,” and the market began pricing in the likelihood of a second round of negotiations. The “final offer” left behind when Vance left also gave Iran a step forward; Iran’s Foreign Minister Amir Alaghzi said the two sides are “only one step away from signing a memorandum of understanding.”

Reuters reported that the second round of talks could be held as early as this week. If that is true, the market will interpret it as Iran seriously considering Vance’s “final offer.”

But even after oil prices fell from about $104 over the weekend to the low $90s, the decline is large, yet still more than 1.5 times the pre-war level of $61. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman’s historical analysis is worth noting: “Historically, when the belligerents start negotiations from completely opposing positions, it is rarely possible to reach an agreement in the short term. Given the enormous gap in core demands between the U.S. and Iran, it is hard to see the Strait reopening within two time windows.”

The ceasefire expires on April 22. If there is no substantial progress before then, oil prices will face another round of violent volatility.

Gold: $4,800; PPI Benefits + Softer Dollar Provide Double Support

Gold prices rose to around $4,798 per ounce, up 0.65%.

PPI came in far below expectations → inflation expectations cool → odds of rate cuts tick up slightly → expectations for lower real interest rates → supportive for gold. At the same time, the dollar continues to weaken as risk appetite rebounds, also providing support for gold. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 4.297%.

Gold is testing the key resistance zone of $4,800-$4,850. If it can hold above this range in the next few trading days, the next target is $4,980 (the 0.618 retracement of the March decline), followed by the $5,000 psychological level.

However, Goldman’s global strategy report offers a cooler perspective: 6 G10 economies are expected to raise rates this year, shifting the global interest-rate center upward. This limits the upside potential of gold via the “rate cut narrative.” For gold to return above $5,000, it will take more than just a gentle signal from the Fed—it also needs global rate-hike expectations to cool down, which would require oil prices to fall sharply further.

Cryptocurrencies: BTC Breaks $74,000, the Strongest Performance Since the War Began

Bitcoin surged about 4.6% on Tuesday to above $74,300, setting the highest level since the outbreak of the war.

This is a milestone breakthrough. The dense short-sell zone of $72,200-$73,500 (according to CoinDesk data, around $6 billion of leveraged shorts clustered here) was decisively broken through, triggering a new round of short-squeeze action. Since the ceasefire before April 7 at $66,000, BTC has rebounded more than 12% in 8 trading days.

The drivers are very clear: PPI far below expectations → inflation outside energy stays manageable → rate-cut expectations tick up slightly → the liquidity-easing narrative returns → risk assets rally across the board → BTC benefits. Nasdaq’s ten consecutive green days and BTC’s synchronized rally again prove that Bitcoin’s current trading identity is “high-beta tech asset,” with correlation to the Nasdaq staying above 85%.

The level of $74,000 is significant. If BTC can hold this level, the technical structure will form an upward channel from $65,000 to $75,000, with the next target pointing to $80,000. CoinDesk analysts’ earlier forecasts are coming true: “If oil prices keep falling 15-16%, Bitcoin could move toward $80,000.” Today, oil prices are dropping by roughly 8%.

The bigger narrative framework is: the ceasefire expires on April 22, the CLARITY bill roundtable is on April 16, and the FOMC meeting is on April 28-29. If the second round of talks makes substantial progress and leads to the ceasefire being extended → oil prices fall further → inflation data improves in May → expectations for Fed rate cuts reappear on the table in June or September, then it will no longer be fantasy for BTC to reach $80,000-$90,000 in the first half of this year.

But the downside is equally clear. If talks fail again, the ceasefire ends and the war restarts, and if oil prices return above $110, BTC will likely retrace to $65,000 and possibly even $60,000.

Today’s summary: The market is betting on a better outcome

On April 15, Tax Day, but Wall Street didn’t sell to pay taxes—it went on a buying spree:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P rose 1.2% and neared all-time highs. Nasdaq’s ten consecutive green days set a record since 2021. All three indices are back in positive territory for the year. PPI far below expectations eased inflation panic.

Oil: WTI plunged 8% back below $100. Second-round talks expectations + PPI softening + easing inflation worries = a double negative for oil.

Gold: Rising to $4,798, testing resistance at $4,800-$4,850. PPI benefits and a weaker dollar provide double support.

Cryptocurrencies: BTC breaks $74,000 to hit a new post-war high. $6 billion in dense shorts were broken through, triggering a short-squeeze rally.

One number says it all: Nasdaq’s ten consecutive green days from the war low point to today’s endpoint came with a rebound of nearly 15%.

Citadel’s Griffin said, “If the Strait closes for six months, the world will fall into recession.” Goldman said six developed economies will raise rates. Macquarie said, “Historically, negotiations like this are hard to resolve quickly.”

But the S&P 500 says: I’m almost making a new high.

The market is betting on a better outcome—betting that oil prices will fall back, that talks will restart, that inflation will ease, and that the Fed will eventually cut rates. These bets are placed in every bullish candle, in every buy order.

Next week’s answer depends on three things: whether the second round of talks can happen, whether the ceasefire can be extended before April 22, and whether those 800 ships in the Strait can finally start moving.

Nasdaq has already gained for ten straight days. Next, it will either be the eleventh day—or a liquidation day.