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Polymarket is not the truth machine
【Plain Language Guide】 Many people treat Polymarket odds as "truth," but rarely verify their actual accuracy.
This article uses Brier scores to analyze in depth: prediction markets perform well on high-liquidity events like presidential elections, but in most fields such as sports, culture, and technology, they are far less reliable than flipping a coin. Even more dangerous, odds are widely cited by the media and can influence reality in reverse, with a small group of whales and insider information able to manipulate "collective intelligence."
When the whole world views betting lines as truth, the risks far outweigh their value.
For more details, see: