Huatai Securities: Over a month of control of the Strait of Hormuz deepens supply disruptions in Asia's petrochemical chain

Ask AI · How will this incident accelerate the development of energy substitution pathways?

On April 2nd, Huatai Securities research report stated that the control of the Strait of Hormuz for over a month has caused a general decline in Asia’s petrochemical industry chain due to oil supply disruptions, with rising costs and tightening supplies driving a surge in product prices. The price gap between international diesel and jet fuel has widened significantly, while ethylene and propylene chains face demand shortages, causing price resistance; aromatic hydrocarbon chains show differentiated performance based on product demand resilience. Countries in Asia face varying risks due to differences in strategic petroleum reserves and alternative energy sources, with China’s supply chain disruption risk being relatively low.

Meanwhile, shrinking industry capital expenditure and dual carbon control will promote supply structure optimization. This supply disruption is expected to accelerate the reshaping of Asia’s petrochemical industry landscape. As subsequent uncertainties decrease and downstream inventory replenishment demands are released, there is potential for improved profitability in chemical products. In the long term, this incident will accelerate China’s strategic steps toward energy independence and control. It is expected that the development process of modern coal chemical industry, green hydrogen, new energy, and other oil demand substitution pathways will accelerate, gradually reducing dependence on imported oil and gas.