The Federal Reserve is not truly waiting for China to create a disaster for it, but for China to provide it with a narrative. As long as external de-risking and selling pressure, auction pressure, and the term premium rising all appear at the same time, the Fed can expand its balance sheet again in the name of “maintaining market functioning” and “topping up reserve requirements.” Then what it buys on the surface is liquidity, but what it is really propping up is the financing ceiling of the U.S. Treasury. In the end, whether to cut interest rates is just a front-stage move; the real backstage drama is who will stabilize the back end of the $38 trillion debt system.