Heated clashes between Lebanon and Israel, Houthi forces threaten the Strait of Mandeb, Gaza ceasefire in doubt

Clashes break out on the eve of Lebanon-Israel talks
On the eve of the Lebanon-Israel negotiations originally scheduled for April 14 in Washington, fighting between the two sides has not stopped. The Israeli military airstruck southern Lebanon, causing at least 7 deaths and 19 injuries, while Hezbollah retaliated with drones and rockets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon, saying, “the war is still ongoing.” Since March 2, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed more than 2,000 people and injured over 6,500.

Houthi forces threaten the Strait of Mandeb
On the 12th, Yemen’s Houthi forces warned that if the U.S. and Israel attack Iran again or the “Resistance Front,” they will participate in military actions “with higher intensity.” Iran’s official media IRIB hinted: “Sealing off Iran by sea? The Strait of Mandeb. Coming soon.” Iran’s Supreme Leader’s advisor for international affairs, Velayati, also warned that if the White House “makes the same mistake again,” just one action would disrupt global energy and trade flow. Analysts said that the Houthis control the Strait of Mandeb, and once it is blocked, it will create dual pressure on the energy lifelines alongside the Strait of Hormuz.

Gaza ceasefire uncertain, Hamas heads to Cairo for negotiations
On the 12th, a Hamas delegation met in Cairo with Egyptian mediators to discuss issues concerning allegations that Israel violated the Gaza ceasefire agreement, and to put forward demands such as fully opening border crossings and increasing aid. However, on the 11th, the Israeli military carried out an airstrike on the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza, killing 6 people. Since the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire took effect in October 2025, Israel’s subsequent actions in Gaza have resulted in 749 deaths and 2,082 injuries.

International mediation continues, Pakistan plays a key role
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone separately with leaders of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, urging that a ceasefire should include Lebanon and calling for the prompt restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan continues to serve as a communication platform between the U.S. and Iran, but the gap in positions between the two sides has not narrowed. Analysts noted that Beijing’s dual relations with Iran and Pakistan provide realistic conditions for Islamabad to step in and mediate.
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