Summary of the review 13.04: sharp intraday volatility in China's internal commodity market, escalation of the bulls vs. bears struggle

　　On April 13, 2026, global markets once again faced strong pressure. The USA reaffirmed that starting today at 10:00 AM Eastern US time (UTC+8), an official blockade of all maritime traffic through Iranian ports is being implemented, and the possibility of resuming limited military strikes is being considered. In response, the Iranian parliament proposed a new plan that fully bans the passage of "hostile" warships through the Strait of Hormuz.

　　Growth of structural divergence

　　1. Energy: oil prices remain high, supply deficit persists

　　Despite recent rumors of a ceasefire, the blockade shattered market expectations. Brent crude oil prices remain steadily high at $96–98 per barrel. Due to infrastructure damage in the Middle East energy sector and blocked supply channels, raw material delivery is hindered, and the urgent oil structure shows a clear “backwardation” (Backwardation) effect — a significant spot premium, sharply increasing the likelihood of oil prices pushing toward 100 in the short term.

　　2. Metals: rising aluminum prices, pressure on copper

　　Aluminum: A sharp increase in energy costs triggered panic over supplies, causing aluminum prices on the LME to rise sharply, with the spot premium reaching its highest since 2007.

　　Copper: A completely different logic. Amid concerns about macroeconomic recession and logistical difficulties, London copper has fallen more than 1.3%, settling around $12,780 per ton. The market is shifting from “geopolitical trading” to concerns about “high inflation suppressing demand.”

　　3. Safe assets: gold and silver exhibit “hard currency” properties

　　Capital is massively flowing into safe assets — in April, gold, silver, and platinum sharply rebounded from lows after a retracement. The geopolitical risk premium has already become the main factor shaping commodity prices.

　　Overall analysis method: from larger to smaller

　　In general, commodities: rise or fall? Volatility

　　The strongest sector among commodities: new energy sources (bulls), precious metals (bears)

　　Strongest instruments: polycrystalline silicon (bulls), caustic soda (bears)

　　Conclusion: The market is extremely unstable — “better to observe, trade less.”