The attributes of international gold investment continue to strengthen! The risk of "explosive" energy supply disruptions continues to accumulate?

Recently, the trend in global markets can be described with one word: "tear." Geopolitical risks, energy games, and monetary policy expectations are intertwined, making the pricing logic of various assets extraordinarily complex. Combining the views of multiple analysts from April 12-13, the current market is caught in a struggle among several key contradictions.

1. Energy crisis and geopolitical tensions: The "underlying currents" of the Strait of Hormuz

On the surface, the Middle East situation is the core factor driving up oil prices. The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, the US plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's threats of retaliation directly caused crude oil prices to break through $104. However, Cyril Widdershoven, senior advisor at BlueWater Strategy, offers a more nuanced perspective: the Strait of Hormuz is not "completely closed," but rather the transportation methods have undergone a fundamental shift. A shadow logistics system operated by Iran's "dark fleet"—shutting down AIS signals and conducting ship-to-ship transfers—still maintains an export volume of 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, nearly at pre-war levels. This means that the extreme supply pressure perceived by the market is vastly different from the actual effective supply. This borderline system, tacitly tolerated by the international system, acts as a short-term stabilizer for prices but also harbors greater risks of future policy tightening and sudden supply disruptions.

2. The safe-haven logic of the dollar and structural limitations

In theory, war risks and energy shocks should drive funds into the US dollar. The dollar index has indeed shown a gap-up opening and a relatively strong performance. But it is worth noting that this round of dollar strengthening has not evolved into a comprehensive one-way trend. The reasons are: 1) the market still holds expectations for a critical point in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement; 2) the high uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policy stance makes the market realize that his threatening statements may not all be fulfilled; 3) the Federal Reserve’s rate hike threshold was unexpectedly pushed higher by the March core CPI data. According to Fannie Mae, although overall CPI "exploded" due to soaring energy prices, the core data remained weak for the second consecutive month, with no clear signs of a second-round inflation effect. This limits the dollar’s upside potential and makes safe-haven buying in dollars more of a "defensive adjustment" rather than a "panic flight."

3. Gold: Fundamentals remain solid, but short-term constraints from the dollar and interest rates

Gold prices have fallen back to the $4,730–4,750 range, a decline of about 0.5%–1%, with direct pressure from a stronger dollar and the Fed’s dovish rate hike expectations amid inflation concerns. However, analysts generally believe that the fundamentals of gold remain solid: global central banks continue to buy gold (despite tactical sales by Turkey and Russia, countries like Poland are still increasing holdings), and gold ETFs continue to see inflows. Mike Maharrey’s analysis points out that central bank gold sales (such as Turkey’s to support the lira) are likely short-term dynamics, while geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over the weaponization of the dollar, and worsening fiscal conditions in major economies will continue to enhance gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversification tool. In the short term, gold may fluctuate sideways, but any dips caused by geopolitical cooling could be viewed as buying opportunities.

4. Other key market clues

· Yen approaching intervention threshold: USD/JPY rose to 159.73, nearing the critical 160 level. The energy crisis has squeezed the Bank of Japan’s operational space, and expectations for another intervention by Japanese authorities are rising.
· Lithium prices remain high: Geopolitical disruptions (such as Zimbabwe’s export ban and Australian mining operations threatened by diesel shortages) have increased supply chain vulnerabilities, with S&P predicting Asian lithium prices will stay high into Q2.
· Inventories and inflation expectations: COMEX copper and gold inventories are showing structural adjustments, and market focus has shifted from Q1 earnings to Q2 guidance. Over the next ten days, as ceasefire agreements expire, naval blockades advance, and bank earnings are released, market volatility is expected to spike sharply.

Summary

The current market is not driven by a single logic but by multiple contradictions: energy shocks coexist with "shadow supply," dollar safe-haven demand conflicts with policy uncertainty, and the long-term rationale for gold allocation battles with short-term interest rate pressures. Investors should exercise caution during the upcoming high-volatility period, focusing on core variables that are no longer simply "safe-haven/risk" dichotomies, but include the hidden elasticity of actual energy supply, the Fed’s tolerance for second-round inflation effects, and the real progress of geopolitical negotiations under extreme pressure.