#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Strait of Hormuz, How to Leverage the Global Financial Order

In the spring of 2026, a strait less than 50 kilometers wide caused a thrilling “switch game” in the global markets. Between opening and closing, oil prices soared like a roller coaster, gold repeatedly hit new highs, and cracks in the oil dollar system became increasingly visible. This is not just a simple geopolitical conflict but a deep reshaping of the global financial order triggered by a chain reaction.
1 Background
On February 28, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, officially initiating a 43-day turbulence cycle in the global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, a seemingly insignificant narrow waterway on the map, handles about 20%–30% of global oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation daily, with over 17 million barrels of oil passing through each day. It is the world’s most critical energy artery; once closed, the “vessels” of the global energy system become blocked. Since the blockade, Brent crude oil prices have surged from about $73 per barrel to $116, a nearly 60% increase compared to before the conflict, setting a record high.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that if the blockade lasts more than 25 days, the global crude oil supply gap could reach 20 million barrels per day, with oil prices potentially soaring to $200 per barrel, surpassing the impact of the 1973 oil crisis by 2–3 times.
On April 8, under Pakistani mediation, the US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the good times did not last long—shortly after two oil tankers safely passed, the strait was closed again, with Iran stating that “the negotiations have not yet met the necessary conditions.”
On April 10, the US and Iran held their first formal negotiations in Islamabad, with about 2,000 ships still stranded in the Persian Gulf and around 20k sailors caught in a humanitarian crisis. Behind this “switch game” lies a deeper struggle for interests. Iran’s preconditions for negotiations include full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of all overseas assets. The White House has denied any agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets so far, and significant disagreements remain, meaning the situation could reverse at any time.
2 Chain Reactions
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is far more than a matter of rising and falling energy prices; it is triggering a systemic global economic chain reaction.
(1) Asia: The most vulnerable victim
Asia is the weakest link in this crisis. Japan relies on 95%, South Korea 70%, and the Philippines 98% of their oil imports directly through the Hormuz route. JPMorgan Chase reports that the Gulf conflict has led to about 2.4 million barrels per day of refinery capacity shutdowns. South Korea has imposed vehicle restrictions, the Philippines has declared a state of energy emergency, and Sri Lanka has implemented fuel rationing—regional anxiety about energy security is mounting.
(2) Food and Chemicals: Overlooked Disasters
The Middle East is not only an energy hub but also a global fertilizer production center. The closure of the strait has disrupted one-third of global fertilizer shipping, with urea futures prices soaring 50%. Qatar supplies one-third of the world’s helium—used in semiconductor manufacturing and medical equipment—and the supply chain is under threat due to LNG production disruptions. Plastic raw material naphtha prices have increased by 40%, gradually passing costs onto consumers.
(3) Shipping: Complete Blockage
Approximately 1,000 ships are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, including 800 oil tankers. It will take 6–8 weeks for the global shipping network to recover, with weekly losses of up to $50–60 million. European natural gas prices (Dutch TTF) have doubled, and Qatar’s LNG export capacity has decreased by 17% (12.8 million tons per year), with a repair cycle of 3–5 years.
3 Some Peculiarities
There is something “strange” about this crisis—why are both the US dollar short-term strengthening and gold soaring? It’s understandable that the dollar is rising amid chaos, as safe-haven funds flow into it, increasing demand. But gold usually does not rise simultaneously; what does this indicate?
The answer is: the three pillars of the oil dollar system are simultaneously loosening.
First, the security guarantee is failing. The oil dollar system was established in the 1974 US-Saudi agreement, based on the logic that Saudi Arabia settles oil in dollars and the US provides security protection. But today, US military protection credibility has been seriously shaken— the Hormuz blockade exposed US “security loopholes,” and Saudi Arabia is accelerating its defense independence, with 85% of Middle Eastern oil now sold to Asia.
Second, the monopoly on settlement is breaking. During the crisis, Iran demanded some ships pay transit fees in RMB, and countries like Pakistan and India responded.
Data shows: Saudi Arabia’s oil settlement with China in RMB has reached 41%, surpassing the US dollar for the first time; Iran’s oil exports to China are 100% settled in RMB; Iraq’s RMB settlement ratio exceeds 60%; the US dollar’s share in global reserves has fallen to 56.8%, decreasing by about 0.6 percentage points annually.
Third, capital outflow has fractured. The “oil dollar closed loop” operates on the logic: Middle Eastern oil revenues → purchase of US Treasuries → financing US deficits. But Middle Eastern sovereign funds have begun reducing US debt holdings, increasing gold reserves, and withdrawing investments from US AI sectors. Japan has been forced to sell trillions of US Treasuries to stabilize its exchange rate, intensifying pressure on the US bond market—this is a core reason for gold’s new highs. Gold prices in London once broke through $5,200 per ounce, reflecting the true price signal during the vacuum period of the old system’s collapse.
4 China’s Perspective
For China, this crisis is both a challenge and a strategic opportunity, but it requires high vigilance.
The challenge is that China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, and Middle Eastern oil remains vital to China’s economy. Although China has about 20k barrels of strategic crude oil reserves (supporting roughly 240 days), and can adjust through pipelines from Russia, energy security pressures remain significant.
The opportunity lies in the historic window for RMB internationalization. The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now covers 185 countries, and digital RMB pilot projects are being tested in over 30 countries, reducing cross-border settlement time from the SWIFT system’s three days to minutes, with transaction costs cut by over 50%. On April 12, China’s Inner Mongolia Free Trade Pilot Zone was officially inaugurated, covering Hohhot, Manzhouli, and Erenhot, with a total area of 119.74 square kilometers. Both Manzhouli and Erenhot are important land ports for Russia and Mongolia; amid pressure on maritime routes, the strategic value of land-based energy and trade corridors is rapidly rising.
5 Trend Projections
How should we interpret these negotiations? Will “Uranium” and “the Strait” truly reach an agreement, or is it just another short-lived ceasefire?
Looking at the historical context, US-Iran negotiations have gone through three major milestones: the 2015 nuclear deal, the first contact in June 2025, and the second in February 2026. The Islamabad talks featured a large US delegation led by Vice President Vance, about 300 people, and an Iranian team led by Parliament Speaker Kalibaf, with 71 members. The disparity in team sizes already hints at the difficulty of negotiations.
In the short term, no substantial breakthroughs are expected for three reasons:
First, Iran’s hardliners will never give up control of the Strait of Hormuz;
Second, Israel continues attacks on Lebanon, and Iran has threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire—Israel is an unavoidable “veto factor” for the US;
Third, domestic inflation pressures in the US, driven by high oil prices, are being exploited by opponents to push for an agreement, with Trump eager to reach a deal.
From a broader macro perspective, three long-term trends are truly reshaping the landscape:
First, the diversification of energy settlement currencies—from “oil dollar” to a multi-track system of “oil RMB + gold + local currencies”;
Second, accelerated energy transition—China’s wind and solar capacity now accounts for over 50% of global capacity;
Third, competition in digital currency infrastructure—who can establish the first global digital financial infrastructure, whether it’s the digital RMB cross-border settlement system or the US dollar stablecoin system, will hold the initiative in the next 50 years.
The “switch game” at the Strait of Hormuz is essentially a deep contest over the dominance of the global financial order. Oil price fluctuations are superficial; the fissures in the oil dollar system are underlying. The internationalization of RMB and the reshaping of energy transition patterns are the real themes reflected by this crisis. In a world full of variables, what we need is not sensational emotional venting but a calm, analytical understanding of the underlying trends. Only by understanding these trends can we find our place amid the great changes of the era.