Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Wave 3 Uptrend Has Ended, Currently Entering Wave 4 Retracement Stage

Currently, on the 4-hour timeframe, the Wave 3 rally in Bitcoin has basically concluded, and the price is in a typical Wave 4 retracement phase. From the wave structure perspective, this Wave 4 correction has reached an initial retracement level, displaying a relatively standard corrective pattern.
According to Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 4 retracements usually do not extend too deeply, especially in strong trending markets, where they often manifest as sideways consolidation or shallow pullbacks. The key support level for the current market is around $69,310. This level corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3's advance. If the price can hold above $69,310 without breaking below, the Wave 4 correction can be considered complete, likely leading to the start of Wave 5 rally, pushing the price to new highs.
Conversely, if the price effectively breaks below $69,310, it may develop into a deeper correction, or even enter a more complex Wave 4 pattern (such as an extended or double correction), requiring a reassessment of the overall wave count.
From a short-term probability perspective, the formation of a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart is quite likely. The current price oscillates around the $69,310–$70,000 zone, with decreasing volume, and candlestick patterns are showing signs of a bottoming process. Once a double bottom forms and is confirmed by a volume breakout above the neckline, the short-term rebound momentum will significantly strengthen, with targets near the previous Wave 3 high or higher.
Overall, as long as the $69,310 support holds, the overall bullish structure remains intact, and the market is still in a correction phase within a medium- to long-term uptrend. Investors are advised to closely monitor the $69,310 key level: hold above it for continued bullishness, or exercise caution and consider reducing positions or switching to a defensive stance if broken.
In terms of trading strategy, a small long position can be attempted near $69,310 with a stop-loss below the key support; also, watch whether the 4-hour MACD, RSI, and other indicators show bullish divergence signals to further confirm the double bottom probability. Market conditions change rapidly, and wave theory is only a structural reference; it should be combined with volume, capital flow, and other multidimensional factors for validation.
#BTC Trend Analysis