#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Six months after the crash, is the crypto market warming up or is the bear market not over yet?

Key points: Since September 2025, Bitcoin order book depth has plummeted by 50%, indicating a significant decline in overall market liquidity. Indicators show that the current market fragility is more due to the latest trends since 2026 rather than the flash crash itself in 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline on October 10, 2025, exactly six months ago. This devastating flash crash wiped out a record $19 billion in leveraged positions, and some altcoins plunged by 40% to 80%. Many traders speculate that several market makers may have been wiped out, while others blame obvious manipulation by bn exchanges.
After the crash in October 2025, has the structure of the crypto market truly changed? What changes have occurred in liquidity, derivatives markets, and institutional indicators?
Bitcoin +1% to -1% total order book depth
Typically ranged between $180 million and $260 million in September 2025. Most days, buy-side depth reached $90 million, indicating healthy market liquidity, but October 10, 2025, was an exception. Technical issues with bn and the auto-leverage feature on decentralized exchanges led to a temporary liquidity gap.
During the flash crash, Bitcoin's order book depth entered a downward spiral and stabilized around $150 million in mid-November 2025. Currently, Bitcoin's order book depth rarely exceeds $130 million, down 50% from September 2025 levels.
The already fragile market conditions worsened further in February 2026. As prices struggled to hold the $65,000 level, Bitcoin's order book depth briefly fell below $60 million and remained for nearly 10 days.
Cryptocurrency market trading volume declined significantly, especially in derivatives.
Over the past 30 days, crypto derivatives trading volume fluctuated between $40 billion and $130 billion, below the typical $200 billion seen in September 2025. However, weakening demand for futures contracts isn't necessarily a bearish signal, as longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) remain balanced.
Bullish leverage demand remains weak, and ETF trading volume lags behind Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates, which can be used to assess traders' risk appetite.
Under normal circumstances, this indicator should range between 6% and 12% to compensate for funding costs. Excessive bearish leverage demand can push this indicator below 0%, meaning shorts need to pay to maintain their positions. Data shows that market conditions remained stable in November 2025, then sharply declined in February 2026.
Interestingly, the trading volume of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs was not affected by the October 10, 2025, flash crash. In fact, by late November, activity in these products surged to the highest levels in 20 months, reaching $11.5 billion daily.
From January to March 2026, daily trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs often exceeded $4 billion, but in the first week of April, it finally dropped below $3.3 billion. Similarly, US-listed Ethereum (ETH) ETFs saw daily volumes fall to $1 billion, below the $2 billion in September 2025.
Order book depth, funding rates, derivatives, and ETF trading volumes all indicate that the crypto market conditions in April 2026 are significantly worse than six months earlier. However, given that market structure remained relatively stable before and around February 2026, the impact of the October 10, 2025, flash crash seems far less severe than previously thought.