Last Friday, after the release of March inflation data in the US, the precious metals market reacted relatively calmly. According to the data, the annual CPI index in March sharply increased to 3.3%, reaching the highest level in the past year, and the monthly growth was 0.9%, the largest increase for a month since June 2022. However, the core CPI showed only a 2.6% annual increase, and 0.2% monthly, both figures below market expectations. This structure indicates that the rise in oil prices has had a noticeable impact on overall inflation but has not yet led to a significant increase in core inflation. Core inflation (excluding energy resources) remains stable and relatively manageable.

However, a study published on the same day by the University of Michigan sent a completely different signal. Consumer inflation expectations for one year in April sharply increased from previous 3.8% to 4.8%, marking the largest monthly increase in a year. Panic among consumers regarding future inflation levels contrasts with fairly moderate current indicators, reflecting a rapid rise in concerns among the population due to geopolitical conflicts affecting prices.

Over the weekend, the most discussed event was the negotiations between the US and Iran, which ultimately ended in failure. The parties faced deep disagreements on key issues — control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s uranium enrichment level, and the freezing of foreign assets. Reconciliation in the near future is unlikely. Currently, the development of negotiations between the US and Iran is the main factor of uncertainty. If progress is made and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily restored, oil prices could decrease further, and gold could continue to strengthen amid increased risk; conversely, if negotiations fail or a ceasefire agreement is broken, risk-avoidance sentiment will lead to rising prices and possibly limit further gold price movements. Until a clear trend emerges, traders are advised to strictly control their positions, remain flexible, and wait for more definitive signals.