#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Strait Blockade Sends Oil Prices Soaring, Analysts: Panic Peak Has Passed — Is the Market Immune to Trump?

After the U.S. announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the market responded with a familiar pattern: crude oil prices surged sharply, bond yields rose, and the dollar strengthened. But unlike previous instances, this time, aside from oil prices, other assets reacted relatively restrained. U.S. crude oil prices jumped at the open on Monday (4 April 13 ), currently trading around $104.10 per barrel, up approximately 7.8% intraday.

　　Asian stock markets generally fell, but the declines were mild, with major benchmark indices down about 1%. U.S. stock index futures also fell within 1%, indicating that panic sentiment had not fully spread. Investors had priced in some geopolitical risks in advance, reducing sensitivity to headline news.   
Global X ETFs investment strategist Billy Leung said many people believe Trump’s blockade statement is a negotiating strategy. He pointed out: “The market has reached a peak level of uncertainty, and the reaction function is no longer as extreme as before.” Recent market performance shows that investors have become more adept at adapting to geopolitical shocks, and volatility has eased compared with the past few weeks.

　　Ten Cap chief portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu believes volatility indicators suggest the worst panic may already be over. He said: “A few weeks ago, the VIX rose noticeably—this could have been peak fear and the sell-off…… From now on, the market is adjusting itself.”

　　Both of them noted that investors’ understanding of Trump’s motives has deepened, and the market is no longer overreacting.

　　Oil Prices Rising and Asset Performance

　　As a global energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz has seen traffic fall significantly since the conflict began. The blockade measures have reinforced expectations of tight supply, pushing oil prices higher and intensifying global inflation concerns. U.S. crude oil prices jumped at the open on Monday, and U.S. gasoline prices have returned above $4 per gallon. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen by more than 300 basis points.   

　　Gold prices behaved unusually: when geopolitical tensions intensified, they instead fell slightly, mainly because emerging-market central banks sold gold to stabilize their currencies. During Monday’s Asia-Europe session, spot gold traded around $4725 per ounce. Compared with the previous trading day’s close, the intraday decline was about 0.5%. Even so, analysts expect that if tensions in the Middle East ease, gold demand may rebound.

　　Short-Term Risks and Expectations of a Stock Market Rebound

　　Analysts generally expect oil prices to drop after short-term volatility. Michael Yoshikami of Destination Wealth Management said: “I’m quite confident that oil prices will fall back from their current levels…… We’ll see oil return to $80 per barrel again.” He believes the U.S. and Iran will ultimately reach a negotiated solution, and the current risk premium will quickly dissipate.

　　Standard Chartered’s Steve Brice said that high oil prices would delay expectations for monetary easing, putting upward pressure on bond yields and the dollar, but these are temporary phenomena because the United States is seeking a de-escalation path.

　　Brice believes that as long as the situation does not deteriorate significantly, stock markets are positioned for a rebound. “Investors are still in defensive positions, but the macro backdrop is relatively constructive, leaving room for a stock market rebound.”

　　The Market Shifts From Panic to Pricing

　　The market is currently in a delicate balance: on one hand, it acknowledges that geopolitical risks have risen; on the other hand, it expects that hostile actions will ultimately calm down. Investors are interpreting Trump’s statements more calmly and are no longer triggering the panic sell-off seen in early conflicts.

　　Yoshikami summed up: “This is not a binary outcome, but a gray zone.” Political timetables, such as war powers resolutions, are the key near-term risks. In the coming weeks, the Trump administration may face greater pressure, and it remains to be seen how much attention the market will pay to these constraints.

　　Overall, the market has shifted from initial panic to a risk-pricing phase. Volatility indicators have declined, suggesting that peak fear may have passed, but geopolitical events will still affect short-term trends.

　

　　While the U.S. military’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices and raised inflation concerns, risk assets such as stocks have reacted mildly. This shows that investors have already absorbed some of the risks in advance and are turning their expectations toward negotiation prospects. Oil prices may remain high in the short term, but analysts believe they will fall as the situation stabilizes. Gold performance has diverged, and bond yields reflect adjustments to monetary policy expectations.
The future direction of the market will depend on how quickly the conflict de-escalates and the pressure from political timetables. Uncertainty remains in the short term, but the panic phase appears to be over.