#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Iran-U.S. conflict remains the biggest variable in the coming days. As long as the situation remains uncertain, Bitcoin will find it difficult to surge unilaterally. As for $75,000, breaking through in the short term under the cloud of war is extremely challenging, and it is most likely to stay in a high-level oscillation.

Geopolitical: Short-term suppression is evident

- Risk aversion attributes fail: Currently, the market views Bitcoin as a “high-risk asset” rather than a gold substitute. The rupture of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade have led to capital outflows, and Bitcoin has already fallen to around $70,600 this morning.
- Sentiment-driven: Over the past 24 hours, over $280 million in liquidations occurred across the network, putting the market in a “bird startled by a shadow” state. As long as there is no clear ceasefire signal, this volatility and selling pressure will continue.

$75,000 Resistance: Heavy obstacles

- Technical pressure: $75,000 is a strong resistance level, and recent attempts to break through have failed. The weekly chart shows a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
- Oscillation range: Currently, Bitcoin is locked in a box between $65,000 and $75,000. Institutional views generally consider April as a “volatile month,” lacking the momentum for a direct breakout.

Market outlook

- If the situation escalates (e.g., new conflicts erupt): Bitcoin may further retest the support zone of $68,000–$70,000, or even test $65,000.
- If the situation eases (e.g., a temporary ceasefire is reached): Capital may flow back, potentially retesting $73,000–$74,000, but breaking $75,000 still requires massive buying volume.

This article does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please strictly control your positions and avoid blindly chasing highs.