Export tax rebates are about to be canceled, and photovoltaic module prices are expected to rise significantly

Investing in stocks is about following the Golden Kylin analyst reports—authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive—helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities!

| \| \| \| — \| \| 　　Zhang Dawei Illustration \| | | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |

◎Qiu Siyu, Reporter Wang Kaifeng

Shanghai Securities News recently learned through on-site research that prices for photovoltaic module have risen significantly. Leading manufacturers including JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JA Solar have successively raised their product quotations. Compared with their earlier low points, the increase in mainstream module prices is generally around 15% to 20%, and some high-power products have risen by as much as 50%.

In response, Zheng Tianhong, a photovoltaic module analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, analyzed that this round of module price hikes is the combined result of rigid cost increases and policy-window catalysts. The surge in silver prices is the core underlying reason, and adjustments to export tax rebate policies are an important trigger.

According to an announcement issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, starting from April 1, 2026, export tax rebates for value-added tax on products such as photovoltaics will be abolished. Multiple interviewees believe that after the policy takes effect, the industry may enter a period of profit recovery, shifting from low-price “involution” toward value competition based on technology, brands, and services.

Leading firms drive module price increases

Some products’ quotations break 1 yuan per watt

“Adjustments to the export tax rebate policy have compressed companies’ profit margins. This is especially true for small and medium-sized enterprises that previously relied on rebates to maintain low prices. The fact that leading firms raise prices first is also an early response to cost pressure,” said a photovoltaic industry analyst.

Based on industry estimates, canceling the 9% export tax rebate is expected to increase the cost of photovoltaic products by about 0.06 yuan to 0.07 yuan per watt. If companies want to maintain a reasonable profit level, export prices need to be raised accordingly to above 0.8 yuan per watt.

After reviewing market dynamics, the reporter found that this round of module price hikes shows the characteristics of “leading firms set the pace, tiered follow-up, and structural differentiation.” High-end high-power products have become the main force behind the price increases.

For example, JinkoSolar decided that from March 2026, its Feihuzhi 3 and other scenario-based special process products with capacities above 650W will follow the price increase plan. Compared with earlier low points, the average increase is about 30% to 40%, and the highest module price increase in this round has already reached 50%.

A person in charge from JinkoSolar said that this repricing is aimed at supporting the industry’s long-term sustainable development. It is a key move to further expand pricing power in the global photovoltaic market through market and technology advantages.

Trina Solar has already completed 3 rounds of price adjustments since this year. The latest official guidance prices for distributed photovoltaic modules show that, for 620W—650W mid-size and 715W—745W large-size module types, the guidance price has been raised to 0.89 yuan to 0.93 yuan per watt. The cumulative increase since January is 8.1% to 8.5%. Among them, quotations for lightweight single-glass modules have already broken through 1 yuan per watt.

Leading manufacturers such as LONGi Green Energy and JA Solar have also adjusted prices. Among them, LONGi Green Energy’s distributed modules have increased by 0.03 yuan to 0.05 yuan per watt per module, and its 670W+ high-power BC module quotations have broken the 1 yuan per watt mark.

The latest data from consulting firm InfoLink Consulting shows that products at the midstream and downstream segments of the photovoltaic industry chain have all seen price increases to varying degrees. In March, the spot prices of mainstream distributed modules have risen to 0.8 yuan per watt, up more than 33% from 0.6 yuan per watt at the end of 2024.

Multiple factors converge

Driving photovoltaic product prices higher

For the reasons behind this round of module price hikes, there is a relatively clear consensus within the industry.

A person in charge from LONGi Green Energy said that the continuous rise in raw material prices such as precious metals, combined with the adjustment to export tax rebate policy that changes the industry’s profit space, jointly push photovoltaic product prices higher.

“The core drivers of the price increase include the sustained high prices of bulk commodities such as silver, copper, and aluminum, which directly raise module production costs; at the same time, overseas downstream customers are relatively less sensitive to module price increases, and the market’s acceptance of price hikes remains fairly good,” said a person in charge from JinkoSolar.

The person in charge from JinkoSolar also revealed that overseas market demand has grown significantly. JinkoSolar’s current production scheduling plan is about 20% higher than before the policy was introduced. “With existing orders, we can support a relatively reasonable module price. For high-power products represented by Feihuzhi 3, the export share in 2026 will be no less than 60%.”

In addition, the steady advancement of “anti-involution” measures has also become a key support for price rebounds. An expert consulted by the Photovoltaic Industry Association, Lü Jinbiao, analyzed that when module prices return, the essence is that companies no longer compete for orders at prices lower than cost. “Even if they ship less, they don’t want to sell at a loss,” he explained. He added that rising costs are not only affected by factors such as higher silver prices; they are also influenced by the increase in per-unit depreciation and expense amortization as companies operate at low-load levels.

A person in charge from JinkoSolar also admitted that the industry has strong demands for prices to return to a reasonable range. A person in charge from LONGi Green Energy believed that reasonable price fluctuations can push the industry toward upgrading into a higher-value, better-technology, and better-product transition, enhancing the brand image of China’s photovoltaic products.

Saying goodbye to low-price “involution”

A “dawn” for the photovoltaic industry first appears

Industry insiders analyze that, from a short-term perspective, although export tax rebate policy adjustments ensure shipment volume in the first quarter, demand front-loading also contains hidden concerns. “If overseas distributors complete centralized stocking before the end of March, it may lead to an order gap in the second quarter. At the same time, domestic market demand also faces pressure. According to seasonal patterns, the second quarter is a stable period for domestic photovoltaic installations, and as the installed capacity base grows year by year, the expected growth rate for new domestic installations in 2026 may decline somewhat.”

However, even if demand may decline temporarily in stages, the interviewee still feels optimistic about the price trend.

He said that the industry consensus is that “anti-involution” has become a common understanding. Even if demand softens in the second quarter, companies will maintain price balance by proactively controlling production. Therefore, the industry generally believes that module prices in the second quarter will show strong resilience, and the core price range will receive solid support.

Zheng Tianhong also held a similar view: after the second quarter, with overseas demand front-loading and the accumulation of overseas module inventory, domestic module prices may fall. However, regarding the final trend, it is still necessary to pay attention to conditions on the policy front. If new policies drive demand release, module prices are expected to demonstrate resilience.

For the full-year market outlook, Lü Jinbiao judged that the adjustment to export tax rebate policy has a short-term impact on prices and the market. Looking at the entire year, the established direction is that module prices rise back above the cost line.

Zheng Tianhong said that in the long run, China’s photovoltaic module industry is gradually moving away from the competitive model of “low-price involution,” shifting toward a high-quality development track of “technology-based pricing power.” In the future, the penetration speed of advanced technology routes such as TOPCon 3.0, BC, and perovskites will accelerate, and the industry will usher in a new development stage driven by technology.

A huge amount of information and precise interpretation—everything is on Sina Finance APP