$BTC Yesterday, it dropped from 73,800, bottomed at 70,500 with a weak rebound, and is now fluctuating around 71,000. It seems to stabilize, but in fact, the bulls are exhausted; the lack of volume in the rebound is just market manipulation to lure in buyers in a bear market.

1. Macro & Geopolitics: Double negative pressures
Negotiations in Islamabad broke down, the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, safe-haven funds flooded into gold and the US dollar, and risk assets were sold off.
The rate cut window continues to close, the probability of a rate cut in June has significantly decreased, high oil prices → high inflation → the logic of no rate cuts remains valid, and funds continue to flow out of the crypto market, with Bitcoin’s medium-term bear market structure unchanged.
2. Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum exhausted
The daily chart shows consecutive declines breaking below the EMA30, MACD shows a bullish crossover but the red histogram is shrinking, indicating weak rebound;
The 4-hour chart runs along the lower Bollinger Band, MACD shows a death cross below the zero line with increasing green bars, heavy resistance at 71,500-72,000 trapping, no leading capacity in the rebound, and the decline is much faster than the rise.
3. Trading Strategy: Focus on short positions
Short entry zone: 71,500-72,000, short on resistance, add to short at 72,000-72,500
Stop loss: 73,000
Targets: 70,000 → 69,000 → 67,000
4. Core idea
Oscillations are just traps for the late buyers, rebounds are opportunities to short, avoid bottom fishing and don’t catch falling knives. With geopolitical, macroeconomic, and technical triple negative factors, the direction is clear—short in line with the trend.