Middle East Situation Tracking | April 13

The direct negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad have ended in failure, and Trump immediately ordered a blockade of Iranian ports and boasted about “striking desalination plants and power plants.” The Strait of Hormuz, which had just “reopened,” was threatened with blockade again. Clashes between Lebanon and Israel continued to escalate, the Houthis issued threats, and oil prices swung violently amid multiple shocks.

① Iran

1. Negotiations between Iran and the US in Islamabad ended in the early hours of April 12, with neither side reaching any agreement. Iranian official Nabavian, who took part in the talks, disclosed that the US put forward three major fundamental points of disagreement: demanding “a split evenly” of benefits in the Strait of Hormuz; requiring Iran to export all 60% enriched uranium out of the country; and demanding that Iran be stripped of all uranium-enrichment rights for the next 20 years. Iran’s delegation firmly resisted the above unreasonable demands.
2. According to senior US officials, in addition to refusing to stop uranium-enrichment activities, Iran also rejected the US proposal to stop funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, as well as the demand for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully opened.
3. A statement from the naval branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the Strait of Hormuz is currently under complete control, and that non-military ships are allowed to pass under certain specified regulations. The statement clearly warned that any military vessel approaching the strait in any name will be regarded as violating the ceasefire agreement and will face a strong response. The IRGC released drone surveillance footage of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “any wrong move will plunge the enemy into a deadly whirlpool in the strait.”
4. According to reports from Iran, two US Navy destroyers recently attempted to enter the Persian Gulf, but after being “targeted” by the IRGC Navy they were forced to withdraw, with “only a few minutes” left before being completely destroyed.
5. The Iranian parliament stated that as a new plan is advanced, the management of the Strait of Hormuz will enter a new stage, and fleets of hostile states will be banned from passing through the strait. Iranian Islamic Parliament Vice Speaker Haji Babaei warned the US that the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line,” fully controlled by Iran, and that its transit fees must be paid in rials.
6. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said, “We never expect an agreement to be reached just through one round of talks, and we will continue to work hard so that the two sides’ positions become closer.” Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran is ready to reach a balanced and fair agreement, and if the US “returns to the framework of international law,” an agreement is close at hand.
7. Insiders revealed that Iran is not in a hurry to hold another round of talks with the US; as long as the US does not agree to reach a reasonable agreement, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not change.
8. Iran’s side estimates that more than 3,300 people have died in the “war imposed on Iran.”
9. An official from Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum said it is expected that the damaged refineries can recover to at least 70% of their previous capacity in the short term.

② United States

1. On April 12 local time, US President Trump posted on social media, saying that because “the nuclear issue was not settled,” he would immediately begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US Navy would begin preventing any ships from entering or leaving the strait, and would begin “destroying” mines laid by Iran in the strait.
2. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said the US will not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. He also said that Iran “hasn’t left the negotiating table.” “I predict they will come back and give us everything we want. I have already told my team—I want it all.”
3. Trump also said that the US may strike Iran’s desalination plants and power plants; “Any Iranians who fire at us or at peaceful ships will be blown into ‘hell.’”
4. On April 12, the US Central Command announced that, according to orders from the president, starting at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (22:00 Beijing time) on April 13, a blockade would be imposed on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports. The blockade will apply equally to ships from all countries entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, covering all Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The Central Command said it will not interfere with ships traveling to and from non-Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz.
5. The US military’s two destroyers, “USS Little Peterson” and “USS Michael Murphy,” crossed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, reportedly to clear mines and open a safe route. The Central Command emphasized that this is “part of a larger-scale operation,” aimed at thoroughly clearing mines previously laid by the IRGC.
6. US Vice President Vance said at a press conference in Islamabad that the US has “clearly drawn a red line”—Iran must commit itself to not seeking to develop nuclear weapons and not obtaining related technologies for rapid acquisition of nuclear weapons. Vance said, “We have already left the US’s last and best proposal behind, and we will wait to see whether Iran accepts it.”
7. On the same day, Trump said that aside from the nuclear issue, the US and Iran had “reached agreement on most issues,” and that the talks would be “very friendly” in the end. However, US officials revealed that the US delegation has no one left in Pakistan, and the two sides will not immediately resume direct negotiations.
8. According to insiders, the UK has ruled out the possibility of participating in the US’s blockade operation of the Strait of Hormuz. A UK government spokesperson said they are working with France and other partners to form a broad coalition to protect navigation freedom.
9. Market sources said Trump will deliver an important statement at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

③ Israel

1. On the evening of the 11th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a video statement saying that the joint military action by Israel and the US has “successfully destroyed Iran’s nuclear program and missile program,” and that Iran “no longer has any enrichment facilities that are still operating.” But Netanyahu also said that “the military actions against Iran have not ended,” that Israel “still has tasks to complete,” and that it also hopes to “destroy the Iranian regime,” bringing it to the “weakest state” since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
2. Netanyahu said in a statement that “eliminating Hezbollah (in Lebanon)” is a prerequisite for Israel’s ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon. Israel proposed two conditions: first, disarm Hezbollah; second, reach a “sustainable peace agreement for generations, one that is truly peaceful.” Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold their first direct talks in the US next week.
3. On the 12th, Israeli forces in southern Lebanon engaged in fierce clashes with Hezbollah. Reports said Hezbollah carried out a “textbook-level ambush,” destroying 21 Israeli Merkava tanks within 24 hours. Israeli defense officials said Israeli forces have entered a “high state of readiness.”
4. Israeli assessments show that the situation on the northern front will escalate within 48 hours, and schools in border towns will close. An Israeli military spokesperson confirmed that airstrikes covered multiple core Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, including key targets such as weapons depots, command centers, and missile launch sites.
5. Israel has been accused of carrying out a “genocide” operation in southern Lebanon, systematically destroying border villages and making them uninhabitable. Human rights organizations criticized that these actions may constitute war crimes.
6. On the 11th, Israeli airstrikes on the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza caused 6 deaths and injured many more. Since the Gaza ceasefire agreement took effect in October 2025, Israeli operations in Gaza have resulted in 749 deaths and 2,082 injuries.
7. The Israeli Ministry of Finance released figures showing that the war with Iran has led to budget expenditures of 35 billion shekels, of which 22 billion shekels are for defense use.
8. According to Israeli media reports, the Israel Defense Forces are preparing to launch another attack on Iran. Ynet, an Israeli news website, assessed that after the collapse of the US-Iran negotiations, the US and Israel are preparing to tear up the ceasefire agreement and resume military operations even before the two-week ceasefire deadline expires. Their plan is to carry out large-scale strikes against Iran’s energy and infrastructure assets. After the end of the negotiations, the Israeli side was captured on camera with a large number of US military KC-135 tanker aircraft arriving at Ben Gurion Airport.

④ Strait of Hormuz

1. US side: Trump announced the immediate blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Central Command will block Iranian port maritime traffic starting at 10:00 on the 13th. NATO said it is willing to help maintain security in the strait, and Gulf allies have begun providing assistance.
2. Iranian side: The IRGC announced that the strait is under full control, allowing non-military ships to pass under specific regulations; any warships that approach the strait will be considered as violating the ceasefire agreement and will be hit with strong force. According to Iranian media reports, today two US ships attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz but were forced to retreat.
3. UK: Insiders revealed that the UK has excluded participation in the US’s blockade operation of the Strait of Hormuz. The UK government is working with France and other partners to form a broad coalition to protect freedom of navigation.
4. Navigation status: After the talks broke down, before Trump announced the blockade, there was a period on Sunday when there were no ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil fell by 12.7%, the worst performance in six years.

⑤ Other Developments

1. Turkey: In a public speech, Turkish President Erdogan sharply criticized Israel’s airstrikes on the day of the ceasefire as “barbaric massacres,” and issued a tough warning—if US-Iran negotiations ultimately fail, Turkey will never stand by and will take all necessary actions against Israel. Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan has spoken by phone with US and Bahraini officials involved in the negotiations to discuss the ceasefire talks.
2. Houthi forces: Yemen’s Houthis issued a statement on the 12th saying that if the US and Israel carry out attacks again, they will retaliate with a higher intensity. The statement said that any new round of military escalation by the US in the region will have negative impacts on global supply chains, energy prices, and the world economy, and warned that it may affect maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis also said that the position of the Iranian delegation in Islamabad talks is a “new achievement of the resistance axis.”
3. Saudi energy: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy announced that the full transportation capacity of the east-west oil pipeline has been successfully restored, with an average daily throughput of about 7 million barrels; the affected Manifa oil field’s output has also resumed, with daily production of about 300,000 barrels.
4. Oil prices and the market: Although during the ceasefire period oil prices once fell sharply, the breakdown of negotiations and the threat of blockade drove oil prices to rebound rapidly. Brent crude oil fell by 12.7%, the worst performance in six years.
5. US military developments: After the talks broke down, the US continued to deploy more military forces to the Middle East. Large numbers of US transport aircraft and KC-135 tankers were captured flying to Israel, and the bomber aircraft fleets deployed on the front line remained in an armed state.

⑥ Market Data

Precious metals and oil (as of April 13):

Item | Latest price | Change
Gold | 4749.31 USD/ounce | —
US Dollar Index | 98.667 | —
WTI crude oil | 95.740 USD/barrel | —

· Gold: Supported by geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices have remained at elevated levels.
· US Dollar Index: Stays around 98.6.
· WTI crude oil: Brent crude oil has fallen by 12.7% for the week, the worst performance in six years; WTI then rebounded to around 95.7 USD/barrel.

Outlook for negotiations: Although both sides have issued provocative statements, the door for diplomacy remains open. According to the Washington Post cited reports from insiders, the second round of US-Iran talks may be held within a few days, and regional countries are consulting with the US in hopes that the fragile ceasefire can be extended. Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar has called on all parties to “continue fulfilling their ceasefire commitments.”
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