Shouchuang Futures: Terminal negative feedback appears, ethylene glycol futures price increase slows down

On the supply side, this week the ethylene glycol start-up rate decreased by 7.4 percentage points week-on-week. Due to raw material supply shortages, the operating rates of domestic ethylene glycol production plants using ethylene cracking have been widely reduced, and it is estimated that the ethylene glycol output loss will exceed 1,000 tons per day. Additionally, units at Yulin Chemical, Yunnan Energy, Zhongkun, and Sinochem are scheduled for shutdowns or load reductions in March. Overseas, one 450k-ton plant in Iran has shut down, with restart plans pending; another 400k-ton plant in Iran canceled its March shipment plan. Saudi plants are operating at low levels, and it is expected that ethylene glycol imports in March may significantly decline.

On the demand side, polyester capacity utilization continues to increase, and terminal weaving operations are gradually recovering. However, raw material prices are highly volatile, price transmission is limited, and some negative feedback from terminals has emerged.

In summary, negative feedback from terminals has caused fluctuations in ethylene glycol futures prices at high levels. Domestic and international plant maintenance has increased, tightening supply, while export expectations have risen. The mid-term supply and demand are still supported, with attention to changes in plant start-up rates and cost fluctuations domestically and internationally. (First Capital Futures)