Oil just crossed $100 and that's basically why crypto is going down today. Trump's Iran situation escalated, inflation expectations shot up, and institutional money started rotating out of risk assets. That's the surface level. But here's what's actually interesting—Bitcoin's drawdowns are getting smaller each cycle. We're talking 47% from peak versus 84% in 2018 and 78% in 2022. The market structure is maturing, which means recoveries should be faster this time around.

Everyone's watching why crypto is going down, but the real signal is what happens after. There's $315 billion in stablecoins sitting on chain ready to move, and the Fear and Greed Index just hit 28. Historically, every time it drops below 15, recovery follows within months. We're not even at panic levels yet.

Looking at individual coins—ETH dropped to $2.20K, down 3.47% in 24 hours. The $2,000 level matters, but spot ETF inflows hit $31 million on April 1, so institutional buyers didn't disappear. XRP is at $1.33 after losing 1.55%, but it's holding above the $1.25 floor. If it can reclaim $1.35 and close above $1.50, that's a recovery setup.

Why crypto is going down matters less than understanding the pattern. Peak fear is when wallets with conviction move. The ones positioned during these crashes are the ones that profit when sentiment flips. Some people will understand the setup and act while entries are available. Others will wait for the market to turn green and spend the cycle wondering what they missed. That's how every cycle plays out.