Market Strategy Tips (April 11 — April 13, Weekend to Present)

Market Analysis
Since the weekend, the market has been in an extreme tug-of-war phase between "US March CPI data landing + Iran-US ceasefire negotiations substantially breaking down + Federal Reserve rate cut expectations marginally recovering." Gold surged after CPI data was released to near the historic high of $4,800, then profit-taking and geopolitical expectations repeatedly caused it to fall back from high levels, fluctuating widely in the $4,600–$4,750 range, disrupting the rebound structure; the crypto market similarly surged and then retreated, with Bitcoin breaking above $73,000—its high for nearly two weeks—then encountering resistance and pulling back, trading between $70,000 and $72,000, showing increased divergence at high levels and significantly elevated volatility in a choppy pattern.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic has shifted to "marginal easing of inflation + escalation of geopolitical conflicts + dilemma of Federal Reserve policies," with rate cut expectations marginally recovering but the long-term high interest rate tone unchanged. On the evening of April 10, Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced March CPI data, with year-over-year growth of 3.3%, below the market forecast of 3.4%; core CPI rose 2.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations of 2.7% and 0.3%. After the data was released, market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed this year slightly improved, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 98.4% probability of no change in rates in April and a 97.9% probability in June, and the pricing for one rate cut this year rising to 68%, significantly cooling expectations for rate hikes. The dollar index fell from 104.8 to 104.2, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined from 4.39% to 4.32%, temporarily easing macro pressure on non-yield assets. Regarding Middle East geopolitics, on April 11, the U.S. and Iran began high-level negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, but on April 12, the talks announced a deadlock and substantial breakdown, with disagreements over ceasefire scope in Lebanon, nuclear activity restrictions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel continued airstrikes targeting over 200 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, unilaterally declaring that ceasefire agreements do not apply to Lebanon, tearing apart ceasefire consensus; Iran tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz, vowing reciprocal retaliation, escalating spillover risks. Brent crude rebounded from $103 to $108 per barrel amid concerns of stagflation, with risk aversion showing a weak tug-of-war, providing a bottom support for gold but not triggering a trend-based buy.
2. Gold surged near its historical high and then retreated, with overbought correction and profit-taking dominating the trend; central bank gold purchases and geopolitical safe-haven demand provide bottom support. International spot gold rose to $4,801 per ounce after CPI data, approaching the previous all-time high, but then long positions exited en masse, causing a rapid unilateral decline, with the current Asian session low at $4,630 and trading at $4,666.07, down 1.71% for the day, with a volatility of over $170 since the weekend. COMEX gold futures also weakened, currently at $4,682, down 1.68% intraday. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold continuous contract is at ¥1,046.45 per gram, up 0.52%; gold T+D at ¥1,047.23 per gram, up 1.08%. Mainstream retail prices for pure gold jewelry remain in the ¥1,450–¥1,470 per gram range. The core drivers of this round of gold price movement are: first, bearish sentiment dominates, profit-taking at high levels has peaked, with COMEX long liquidation reaching a two-week high, compounded by central banks in emerging markets like Turkey and Poland selling over 80 tons of gold since March due to exchange rate pressures, and global gold ETFs experiencing a net outflow of 12.8 tons in the first week of April, with institutional long positions continuing to reduce, which is the main reason for the price decline; second, support remains solid as the U.S. CPI data was below expectations, causing a retreat in the dollar and U.S. bonds, while geopolitical conflicts from Middle East tensions boost safe-haven demand, combined with China’s central bank’s 17-month consecutive gold purchases, maintaining the long-term logic of global central bank gold buying, with firm physical demand support in the $4,600–$4,630 range. Key current levels: core support at $4,600–$4,630 (intraday low + key support/resistance zone), strong support at $4,550–$4,580; core resistance at $4,700–$4,720, strong resistance at $4,780–$4,800 (historic high zone).
3. After surging, the crypto market experienced a sharp pullback, with Bitcoin losing the $73,000 mark, profit-taking and cautious market sentiment driving the trend. Bitcoin surged after CPI data was released over the weekend, reaching a high of $73,012 (a two-week high), then synchronized with gold, plunging to a low of $69,950, currently trading at $70,850, maintaining a broad range of $70,000–$73,000 since the weekend. Ethereum also surged and then retreated, with a high of $2,210 and a low of $2,085, currently at $2,125, down 1.2% intraday. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE also corrected, with daily declines over 3%. Regarding funds and on-chain data: spot Bitcoin ETFs continued net inflows, with over $696 million net inflow in the first week of April, Fidelity’s FBTC continued accumulating, and Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows significantly narrowed, indicating long-term institutional positioning remains unchanged; MicroStrategy (Strategy) bought an additional 4,871 BTC over the weekend, with total holdings reaching 766,970 BTC, providing underlying support. The 24-hour global liquidation count was 98k traders, with total liquidations of $212 million, 64% of which were long positions, with concentrated long liquidations at high levels driving the decline. On-chain data shows exchange BTC net outflows exceeded 18k coins over the weekend, with whale addresses below $70,000 actively accumulating, and large transfers of thousands of coins increasing their holdings to 68%, with long-term holders accounting for over 60%, indicating limited underlying selling pressure; however, the proportion of profit-supplied coins dropped to about 59%, well below the 75% historical average, showing less willingness to chase highs. Sentiment and technicals: the crypto fear and greed index is at 40, returning to a neutral-cautious zone; the short-term support at $70,000 remains critical, with $73,000 turning from support to strong resistance. The medium-term upward trend remains intact, but short-term correction pressure has significantly increased.
Special Reminders
Gold is currently in a wide-range correction cycle after reaching historic highs, with over $170 of volatility confirmed to be short-term profit-taking pressure release. Coupled with repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainties in Fed policies, high-level volatility risk has sharply increased. It is strictly forbidden to blindly bottom-fish or take contrarian positions; the $4,700 level has now become a strong resistance zone, and there is a risk of secondary decline from sustained selling pressure. It is recommended to hold a light position and observe; only when the price stabilizes in the strong support zone of $4,600–$4,630 can small long positions be considered, with strict stop-loss at $4,580. When the price rebounds above $4,700, consider reducing positions on rallies, strictly controlling overall exposure to avoid extreme high-level volatility.
The crypto market, after this round of rally, has experienced a pullback, with significant profit-taking pressure above $73,000, increasing short-term correction risk, but the medium-term upward trend remains unbroken. It is strictly forbidden to chase high positions or bottom-fish at high levels; keep positions within 30%, and if the price effectively breaks below $70,000, it could open the downside space to $68,000, requiring timely reduction to avoid risks. Only if the price retraces to stabilize at $70,000 and volume recovers to reclaim $73,000 should one consider scaling into positions gradually, prioritizing risk avoidance of high-level pullbacks.