I just realized something quite interesting about token unlocks—it's not always a price killer like everyone thinks. But before jumping to conclusions, let’s analyze this so-called “token unlock” in depth.

Token unlock is the process of releasing tokens that have been locked since the project first launched. They may belong to the team, early investors, advisors, or the community. The original reason for the lock is quite reasonable—to prevent whales from selling off immediately, keep the price stable, and build trust with the community.

But why does token unlock cause such strong price fluctuations? The answer lies in supply and demand. When a large amount of tokens are unlocked all at once, early holders may decide to take profits. Selling pressure suddenly increases, and if there isn’t enough buying power, the price will plummet.

I see three main factors that affect this volatility. First is market psychology—investors often sell before the unlock happens because they fear being dumped on. Second is the scale of the unlock—if the unlocked tokens account for 20–30% of the total circulating supply, the impact will be devastating. Third is the recipient of the tokens—if it’s mainly the team or VC, it’s dangerous; but if it’s allocated to the community, the reaction could be more positive.

Let’s look at two real-world cases. Official Trump coin in April 2025 faced pressure when 40 million tokens (20% circulating supply) were unlocked. The price fluctuated from $7.77 to $8.63 with enormous trading volume. But afterward, when there was positive news about a private event with Tổng thống, the price rebounded strongly. Conversely, Aptos (APT) kept repeating the same pattern through three unlocks—the price rose before the unlock and then dumped afterward—until Bitcoin fell sharply and everything collapsed. Currently, APT is at $0.82, down 5.91% in 24h, and TRUMP is only $2.79—these are clear proofs of the long-term impact of token unlocks.

What’s important is that you must keep an eye on the upcoming unlock schedule. There are a few reputable tools like Tokenomist (with an intuitive interface, detailing each tranche), DeFiLlama (with a comprehensive overview dashboard), or follow directly from the project’s X and Discord. Most teams will announce in advance and even hold AMAs to explain their plans.

But here’s what I want to emphasize: not every token unlock is a bearish signal. You need to dig deeper—who will receive the tokens, do they have incentives to sell, and what news comes along with it. Using token unlock tracking tools combined with technical analysis and market news will help you make smarter decisions. If you’re holding tokens that are about to unlock, update the schedule on Gate or other platforms so you won’t be caught off guard by sudden price drops.