Macro Situation: Geopolitical Tensions and Halving Cycle Intense Battles

Affected by unexpected events such as the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, market risk aversion was ignited over the weekend. Bitcoin failed to hold above $73,000 and quickly retreated, indicating that in the face of significant macro uncertainties, its "high-risk asset" attribute still dominates short-term pricing, temporarily overshadowing the "digital gold" safe-haven narrative.
Real-time Market: Risk Aversion Selling Causes Broad Decline
Bitcoin has fallen over 2% from its intraday high and is currently battling around $71,500. The key psychological support level is $70,000; if it breaks below, further decline to the $68,000 region is possible.
Ethereum and other major coins declined in tandem, with drops between 1.5% and 3%, showing no independent trend.
Market sentiment has shifted to caution, with over $300 million in total liquidation in the past 24 hours, with longs losing slightly more than shorts, indicating leverage funds are exiting rapidly.
Core Narrative: The "Deep Water Zone" Before Bitcoin Halving
This is the current market’s core focus. The fourth Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in late April, permanently reducing new coin issuance by over 50%. Historical data shows that halvings are usually accompanied by intense volatility, as some funds take profits early by "selling the fact." However, post-halving, the fundamental improvement in long-term supply and demand structure is the most solid bullish foundation of this cycle.
Fund Flows: From Frenzied Speculation to Value Screening
Market funds are rotating from "air coins" to sectors with actual cash flow or clear narratives:
AI and DePIN: Tracks representing decentralized physical infrastructure, such as decentralized computing power, have gained favor due to aligning with the AI development wave, showing relatively strong recent performance.
RWA: Tokenized real-world assets like US Treasuries provide stable income sources for the crypto market amid high traditional interest rates, attracting conservative institutional allocations.
Meme Coins Cooling Off: Meme coins lacking fundamental support exhibit sharp volatility and decreased risk-reward ratios, with obvious capital outflows.
Main Risks: Security Incidents and Regulatory Clouds
The previously noted "North Korean hacker threat" remains a systemic risk in the crypto world. Any major security breach targeting large exchanges or cross-chain bridges could trigger on-chain panic and strong regulatory responses, short-term market sentiment suppression, and increased compliance costs industry-wide.
Current Strategy Highlights
Maintain Defensive Posture: Before halving implementation, high volatility is normal. Be sure to reduce leverage and avoid high-risk operations near key support/resistance levels.
Uphold Safety Bottom Line: During sharp market swings, phishing sites and fake wallet apps surge exponentially. Never click on unknown links, and store large assets in hardware wallets.
Focus on Core Supports: For Bitcoin, $70,000 is a short-term bull-bear dividing line. Effective breakdown requires shifting to more cautious strategies; if it recovers above $73,500 with volume, the upward trend may continue.
At this stage, patience is more important than frequent trading. It is recommended to reduce short-term trades and focus more on protecting assets and observing the long-term flow of on-chain funds after halving.