XTI Crude Oil Analysis Strategy:

1. Core Viewpoint: "Fake fall" under the ceasefire agreement, supply gap suppresses downside potential

This week, the crude oil market experienced intense volatility, with Brent crude rebounding from a low of $90 to around $96. The US-Iran "two-week ceasefire agreement" triggered panic selling, but this is more of an emotional correction rather than a fundamental improvement.

The key judgment is: Ceasefire ≠ resumption of shipping. The Strait of Hormuz has not truly reopened for commercial shipping, over 130 million barrels of oil remain trapped in the Gulf, and 80 fully loaded tankers cannot sail out. As long as supply cannot return to normal flow, there is no basis for a trend downward in prices. The current decline is partly a retracement of geopolitical risk premiums, not a reversal of supply-demand logic. Medium-term, the oil price center has moved up to the $80-85 range, with short-term volatility between $90-100.

2. News analysis: Paper ceasefire, real blockade persists

· Geopolitics (mixed bullish and bearish): Under Pakistan mediation, US and Iran reached a two-week temporary ceasefire, directly causing a weekly drop of over 13% in oil prices. But after the third round of talks on April 12, there are serious disagreements on key issues like Strait control and uranium enrichment. The White House claims "the strait is open," but the CEO of the UAE National Oil Company states: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open." Only Iranian-flagged oil tankers have sailed out; no tankers from Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Kuwait have moved.

· Supply side (medium-term strong support): The supply gap caused by the blockade continues—peak supply loss in April reached 12.7 million barrels/day (810,000 barrels/day decrease in crude exports + 460,000 barrels/day reduction in refinery supply), with an estimated 7.8 million barrels/day still in May. Even if ceasefire persists, restarting oil fields and refineries takes weeks or longer. Global crude floating storage has decreased by 51.7%, severely depleting the supply buffer.

· Macro (neutral to slightly bearish): Oil price shocks are transmitting to inflation. US March CPI rose to 3.3% YoY, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to shift later, with a "higher for longer" rate environment suppressing upside potential in oil prices.

3. Technical analysis: Over-sold rebound, but heavy resistance above

· Daily chart: Bearish pattern unchanged. Moving averages are arranged in a bearish downtrend, with prices consistently below MA5/MA10/MA20. MACD lines are below zero, showing some bottom divergence repair signs but no effective golden cross yet; rebound momentum remains weak.

· 4-hour chart: Short-term bullish rebound. RSI recovers from oversold to 50-65, indicating technical correction after overselling. Bollinger middle band flattens, with prices between the middle and upper bands, showing moderate but sustained rebound momentum.

· 1-hour chart: Typical consolidation after a unilateral decline, with short-term bearish forces fully released. Rebound may continue but faces limited space.

4. Key support and resistance levels

· First support (defensive bottom): $93.5–94.5
· Basis: This week's low and the 1-hour consolidation bottom, short-term long position defense zone.

· Core support (dividing line for bulls and bears): $90–91
· Basis: The weekly low touched by Brent crude. A confirmed break below this would turn the short-term trend bearish, but current fundamentals do not support that.

· Short-term resistance (touchstone): $98.5–99.0
· Basis: 4-hour chart reversal point, also the area of multiple rebounds this week. A break above confirms reversal.

· Strong resistance (ceiling): $100.5–101.0
· Basis: The gap resistance on the 2-minute chart, also a psychological barrier. Breakout requires significant news support.

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5. Specific trading strategies

Core logic: Medium-term supply gap support + short-term emotional rebound, adopting a "buy on dips, sell on rallies" oscillation strategy.

Strategy A: Buy on dips (main strategy)

· Entry points: $94.5–95.0
· Basis: 1-hour support zone and Friday’s late consolidation platform.

· Add-on positions: near $93.5–94.0
· Basis: Strong support at this week's retest low.

· Stop-loss: below $92.8
· Logic: If price closes below $93.5, exit longs and wait.

· Take profit targets: first at $98.0, second at $99.5.

· Position size: 2-3% (can add to 5% if price dips to $93.5).

Strategy B: Defensive short-term short (auxiliary)

· Trigger: If early-week rebound reaches $98.5–99.0 with no significant worsening of supply news.

· Entry point: around $98.5

· Stop-loss: above $100.0

· Take profit: around $95.5

· Position size: 1-2% (strict stop-loss, operate against small trend).

6. Next week’s outlook

Expected to oscillate mainly between $93.5–$99.0 with a slight bullish bias. Early in the week, likely continuation of rebound correction, testing $98.5–99.0 resistance; if no substantial progress in shipping, prices will face resistance and retreat, but space below $93.5 is limited. The key variable is US-Iran negotiations—if talks break down and Strait reopening is delayed, prices could quickly return above $100; if shipping resumes smoothly, the price center may shift down to $85–90.

In trading, stick to "buy dips with confidence, avoid chasing highs," mainly low buying and cautious high selling.