Shouchuang Futures: High costs and weak demand struggle, PTA futures prices fluctuate at high levels

Spot Market, East China PTA spot price is 6,870 yuan/ton self-pickup, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
In March, main port delivery is at a 05 discount of 65-70, with bidding discounts around 85; April main port delivery is at a 05 discount of 35-40, with bidding discounts around 50.
On the supply side, as PTA processing margins are significantly compressed, plant production cuts and capacity reductions have increased.
This week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 76.27%, down 3.78% week-on-week, and down 0.59% year-on-year.
PTA factory inventories and polyester factory PTA raw material inventories have both slightly decreased week-on-week.
In terms of demand, downstream polyester operating rates and terminal weaving start-ups are gradually recovering.
Polyester product prices fluctuate sharply, with terminal gray fabric prices rising accordingly, but mainstream gray fabric specifications continue to be in a loss-making state.
Polyester production and sales are relatively weak, with polyester product inventories rising rapidly, which may suppress the space for increased polyester operating rates.
In summary, crude oil prices continue to rise, PTA maintenance has increased, and inventories have slightly decreased.
However, terminals are cautious about high-priced raw materials, orders remain weak, which may limit the space for polyester capacity increases.
The game between high costs and weak demand suggests that short-term PTA futures prices are expected to remain high and volatile, focusing on cost-side price trends, plant operation changes, and downstream recovery progress.
(First Capital Futures)