I just reviewed a very interesting analysis from Mercado Bitcoin about where the Bitcoin bottom might be. The curious thing is that the analysis changes completely depending on how you measure it. If you look at it in dollars, it could keep falling until the end of 2026 if the historical pattern of 12 to 13 months of a bear market repeats. But if you value it in gold, the bottom could arrive as early as February of this year, which would mean we are already in the accumulation zone.

The reason for this divergence is quite clear: gold has surged more than 80% in the last year while Bitcoin has weakened against it. Geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, and all global uncertainty have moved capital from crypto into bullion. Even Bitcoin ETFs have seen massive outflows, approximately $7.8 billion since November.

But here’s the interesting part: while reactive investors are fleeing, institutional whales in Abu Dhabi are accumulating. Mubadala and Al Warda have been buying the dip in February. That could be a sign that the big players see value at these levels.

The analysis suggests it might be worth building positions now using dollar-cost averaging. Historically, buying during panic periods has worked better than buying in euphoria. Statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are built, so the strategy is clear: accumulate wisely and let time do its work.