Breaking News! Middle East Situation Escalates Again, Market Focuses on Three Key Events Next Week

After a brief calm, the market faces another test next week as geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve movements, major data releases, and earnings season arrive in turn, each directly impacting global asset prices.

1. Sudden Change in Middle East Situation, Geopolitical Risks Rapidly Increase

Over the weekend, 21 hours of US-Iran negotiations announced to have broken down, with no consensus reached. The core disagreement is Iran’s refusal to accept the US demand of “no development of nuclear weapons,” leading to the direct termination of talks.
Former President Trump’s proposed two-week pause on attacks is about to expire, with significant uncertainty about subsequent actions. The US claims a destroyer passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran directly denies, and public opinion on both sides continues to escalate.
Next week, Middle East tensions will become the market’s core focus, and any movement in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger intense market volatility.

2. Major Macro Events & Data Highlights Next Week

Key economic data (directly affecting Federal Reserve policy)

1. Tuesday 20:30 US March PPI (Producer Price Index)
Directly reflects whether energy price increases caused by Middle East conflicts are transmitted to corporate production costs. If the data exceeds expectations, it will further reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. The market has already largely priced in no rate cuts for the entire year.

2. Thursday 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week, April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Fed officials’ intensive speeches + Economic Beige Book

• Wednesday: Multiple Fed officials including Goolsbee, Barr, and Harker will speak consecutively

• Thursday 01:40 Fed Governor Bostic speaks; 02:00 Fed releases Beige Book; 20:35 NY Fed President Williams speaks

Other important events

Thursday: European Central Bank releases March monetary policy meeting minutes, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting convenes

3. US Q1 2026 Earnings Season Officially Begins

Next week, major banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citibank will release their Q1 earnings reports first, followed by tech giants like TSMC and Netflix.
Corporate profitability and the actual implementation of AI demand will be clearly revealed, becoming another major market focus next week.
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