Recently, as I watch the Bitcoin market, I feel that some truly interesting signals are emerging. In particular, a report analyzing Bitcoin’s bearish pattern versus gold has come out, and it turns out to be a more meaningful indicator than expected.

According to the analysis team at Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, historically, Bitcoin bear markets have had a pattern that lasts about 12 to 13 months. In dollar terms, it means there is a possibility that the downtrend could continue until the end of 2026. But what’s interesting here is that the timing changes when converted into gold. The analysis suggested that, in terms of gold, the bottom could be as early as around February this year.

The reason this difference happens is that uncertainty around the world is extremely high right now. There’s trade tension, geopolitical risks, and, above all, capital is continuing to move into gold. In fact, the price of gold has risen by more than 80% over the past year, reaching almost $5,300. Investors are flocking to safe assets.

Bitcoin spot ETFs are also facing pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has reportedly flowed out, which is around 12% of total holdings. With figures like these, you can see just how strong the fear sentiment is. But what to pay attention to here is that when retail investors are exiting, large institutional investors are actually viewing it as a buying opportunity. It’s been reported that major funds in Abu Dhabi increased their spot Bitcoin ETF positions in mid-February.

Even companies like SpaceX appear to have viewed this weakness as an opportunity, and it’s known that they currently hold about 8,285 Bitcoins. Even though the company recorded losses, the fact that it continues to maintain its crypto assets suggests that it trusts their long-term value.

In the end, when thinking about the market’s customer acquisition cost—specifically, entry efficiency at the current price level—you can think of it like the concept of CAC. That means this is a period when you can really accumulate Bitcoin at very low prices. Analysts also emphasize that historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during overheated periods.

Of course, this doesn’t necessarily mean we’ve hit the exact bottom. But statistically speaking, we’re likely to be at the best average price range. Building positions step by step with a strategy like 달러 코스트 애버리징(CAC) seems like the most sensible approach at times like this.