美伊谈判破裂，BTC、ETH看空

Around 9 a.m., the 21-hour negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan ended without result, and BTC and ETH will enter a daily-chart ranging trend that is slightly bearish. It is expected that Bitcoin will pull back to around 70,000, and ETH will pull back to around 2,150 (see the full article for details on the downside).

Around 9 a.m., the 21-hour negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan ended without result, and BTC and ETH will enter a daily-chart ranging trend that is slightly bearish. It is expected that Bitcoin will pull back to around 70,000, and ETH will pull back to around 2,150.

In this U.S.-Iran negotiation, the U.S. demanded that Iran completely abandon nuclear development, unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, and stop supporting regional resistance forces, while Iran firmly defended the sovereignty of uranium enrichment and demanded that the U.S. fully lift sanctions and provide security guarantees. The differences between the two sides are massive, and they cannot reach a consensus.

For the crypto community, geopolitical developments have always been an important external variable that affects its price action. Although cryptocurrencies are often viewed by some investors as “decentralized safe-haven assets,” in today’s highly interconnected global financial markets, they still have difficulty standing apart on their own. After news broke that the U.S.-Iran negotiations had fallen through, the crypto market quickly reacted: the sharp drop in mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH this morning is the market’s response to the breakdown of the talks.

In recent times, the crypto market’s upward trend suddenly came to a halt. From April 8, when Trump went from claiming “Destroy Iran” to suddenly announcing negotiations based on Iran’s “Ten Conditions,” Bitcoin and Ethereum started a period of choppy upward movement with daily strong bullish candles. This shows that easing tensions in the Middle East is actually good news for the crypto market. Bitcoin rose from 68,000 to 74,000, and ETH rose from 2,100 to 2,300—both gains were driven by expectations of easing conditions.

But starting from today’s breakdown in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, the market has lost the support of optimistic expectations, and therefore also lost the momentum to keep rising. 74,000/2,300 will become the interim high, and the gains since April 8 will be unwound as the negotiations break down. Bitcoin is expected to drop back to around 70,000 in the next few days, and ETH is expected to drop back to around 2,150.

At the same time, because Israel has been continually disrupting the ceasefire agreement, and after the U.S.-Iran negotiations fail, the U.S. may again try to apply military pressure on Iran, if the two sides once again fight on a large scale—or even if key facilities such as oil fields, refineries, power plants, and desalination plants are damaged—then the economic situation in the Middle East will become even more severe, and the petrodollar cycle will be disrupted even more seriously. This will cause the crypto market to lose part of its funding source from the Middle East, leading to even larger declines.

However, for now, although the U.S.-Iran negotiations have broken down, both sides are strongly willing to ease the war intensity. Therefore, it is expected that the war intensity will not rise immediately; instead, it will enter a phase of easing (the U.S. really doesn’t want to fight). So this week’s BTC price action is expected to stay within the 72,000–68,000 range on the daily chart (70,000 being strong near-term support), and ETH is expected to stay within the 2,250–2,050 range (2,150 being strong near-term support).