There's an interesting detail that many people aren't paying attention to. Bitcoin's market bottom might be much closer than we think, at least if you measure it in relation to gold.

Rony Szuster, who is the head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, made a very curious analysis about this. He observed that historically, Bitcoin bear markets last between 12 and 13 months. In dollars, the most recent peak was in October 2025, when BTC reached around $126,000. If we follow this pattern, we might see a bottom only at the end of 2026.

But here’s where it gets interesting: when you price Bitcoin in gold, the story changes completely. BTC hit its peak relative to gold in January 2025. Applying the same 12 to 13-month cycle, that would place the bottom around February 2026, with a possible recovery starting in March. And look, we're in April now.

What’s happening behind this is quite clear. Since Trump returned, we’ve seen aggressive trade tariffs, tensions with China and Iran, military conflicts. Global uncertainty has skyrocketed. And who benefited? Gold. The commodity rose over 80% in the last year, reaching $5,280. While capital was flowing into physical gold, Bitcoin weakened against it faster than against the dollar.

ETFs also exerted significant pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has been withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, roughly 12% of the total. Pure liquidation out of fear.

But here’s the plot twist: while reactive capital is fleeing, whales are doing something different. Major investors, like Abu Dhabi funds (Mubadala and Al Warda), are using this decline as an accumulation zone. They increased their exposure in Bitcoin ETFs in February, precisely when fear was at its peak.

Szuster is recommending that we be more strategic. Use dollar-cost averaging, build positions intelligently, take advantage of current fear instead of buying during euphoria. Historically, buying during panic periods has always been more effective.

In other words, are we at the bottom now? No way to guarantee. But statistically, we’re in the zone where the best average prices are usually formed. With Bitcoin at $71.72K and XRP at $1.33, it seems there’s still movement ahead, but also that selling pressure is normalizing. It’s worth keeping an eye on how gold continues to behave because as long as gold maintains this strength, Bitcoin remains pressured relative to it.