So, an interesting development has occurred in the Senate regarding crypto regulation, and this could become an important turning point for our industry.

The Senate Agriculture Committee has recently released a new draft about the structure of the crypto market. Unlike the earlier, more controversial version from the Banking Committee, this draft focuses on how the CFTC will regulate digital assets. At first, many thought this would be a more bipartisan effort with less conflict.

But of course, it’s not that simple.

The issue first surfaced when some senators began expressing concerns that this RUU appeared to lean pro-crypto without enough Democratic support. Senator John Boozman on the Republican side even acknowledged that there are “fundamental policy differences” with his Democratic colleague, Senator Cory Booker, despite their cooperation. That was a sign that the expected consensus would not be easy to achieve.

Last week, Democrats and some Republicans proposed a number of amendments that will be debated. One interesting point is that they had already reached an agreement on the structure of the federal agency before the amendments were considered further. Specifically, there was agreement that the CFTC must be fully formed with sufficient commissioners before this legislation could be implemented. This is important because it is the foundation of the entire regulatory framework.

However, there is another tension. Like the earlier draft, this text also includes legal protections for blockchain developers. Senator Chuck Grassley, who leads the Judiciary Committee, has already said that this section should not be included in the market structure RUU—it is an issue for his committee, not the Agriculture Committee.

Most of the crypto industry seems to have received this draft well. So far, no major concerns have been publicly raised about its impact on crypto businesses.

But here is the uncertain part: there will be a markup hearing next week, and three scenarios could play out. First, there is a possibility of bipartisan support for certain amendments that would allow the RUU to move forward in a more consensual way. Second, the threat of challenges from crypto political action groups like Fairshake might push enough Democrats to vote in favor of the RUU, giving it a comfortable margin. Or third, the RUU could advance purely along partisan lines, making it harder to pass in the full Senate. There is also a fourth possibility—that it does not advance at all.

There are also other factors influencing events. There is a major snowstorm heading toward the East Coast and the U.S. Midwest, starting this weekend and running into early next week. This could delay the hearings if senators can’t get back in time. Plus, the U.S. government will run out of funding on Friday, so the Senate will be busy with that as well.

The Senate Banking Committee also likely won’t discuss market structure for the next few weeks. From what I’ve heard, the White House and committee members want the crypto industry and the banking lobby to resolve their differences over the stablecoin outcome first before moving forward.

So next week will be important. There will be a discussion between the SEC and CFTC on Tuesday about their collaboration in crypto regulation now that both agencies have leadership appointed by Trump. Then there will be a markup hearing for the Senate Agriculture Committee on the same day.

Everything is still on the table right now. We’ll see how this develops.