On April 12, the U.S. March inflation data was released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.3% year-over-year, slightly lower than the 3.4% market expectation; core CPI rose by 2.6% year-over-year, also below the expected 2.7%. While the data is considered “mild compared with expectations,” the inflation level is still the highest since May 2024.

Market reactions show that the inflation trend has long been priced in. Interest rate expectations were quickly readjusted, pushing the rate-cut timetable further out to 2026. In terms of risk assets, Bitcoin (BTC) closed up 1.63% on the day, once again challenging the $75,000 resistance level that has resisted repeated attempts; despite geopolitical pressures, risk appetite still shows no obvious weakening.

From a macro perspective, the upward move in inflation is not sudden. Tensions in West Asia heated up in early March, triggering a supply shock in the oil market, with oil prices briefly rising above $112 per barrel. In other words, the CPI’s “below expectations” more reflects that the market has already digested the inflationary pressure caused by energy rather than responding immediately to new information.