Just saw Bitcoin’s rebound—on Sunday, it surged all at once to nearly $68,000, essentially wiping out the decline caused by Saturday’s turmoil. The story behind it is quite interesting—Iranian official media reported that Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike, and the market reacted instantly.

Honestly, this event itself is quite complex. Khamenei holds Iran’s control of the armed forces, foreign policy, and nuclear program, and his death directly creates a power vacuum. According to Iran’s constitution, a temporary committee made up of the president, the head of the judiciary, and a legal expert from the Guardian Council takes over now, until the Assembly of Experts elects a new leader. But there’s no clear timetable for this process, so uncertainty is quite high.

What’s interesting is that traders seem to be betting on an assumption: that the chaos of the power transition actually reduces the risk of further escalation, and increases the likelihood of a ceasefire. This explains why Bitcoin could jump quickly from $64,000 to $68,000 on Sunday morning—this happened in a weekend market with very thin liquidity, where a single news event can move about $80 billion in market capitalization. Still, it also brings up a question a lot of people discuss in podcasts and in the community: can this rebound last?

Now what we need to watch is how the oil and stock markets react. Iran controls about one-third of global crude oil exports. If the market interprets Khamenei’s death as indicating possible regime instability or disruptions to the supply chain, oil prices could skyrocket, which would raise global inflation expectations and tighten financial conditions—normally not good for crypto assets. Conversely, if traders believe the power transition will bring stable decision-making and avoid a wider-scale war, then risk assets may continue to receive support.

From a technical perspective, this rapid rally from $64,000 to $68,000 was carried out under thin liquidity. That means once broader markets (oil, stocks) open later Sunday, we’ll see whether this optimistic sentiment can truly hold—or whether it will fade, just like last Wednesday’s surge toward $70,000 before pulling back. It depends on the market’s final judgment of the overall situation—whether they’re optimistic about the prospects for peace, or worried about even bigger chaos. We’re still in the observation stage, but this weekend’s rebound has definitely given the market a new angle for its narrative.