#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Breaking news! Vance announces the US-Iran talks have collapsed! Is Black Sunday reappearing?

On Sunday morning at 9:35 a.m., U.S. Vice President Vance held a press conference in Islamabad, confirming that the US and Iran did not reach an agreement, and differences remain significant. The breakdown of negotiations will make the currently fragile ceasefire face greater uncertainty. Currently, Vance has already set off back to the United States. Once the news broke, the market initially declined, with Bitcoin dropping 1,500 points in 15 minutes, now closing at $71,350. Thinking about the collapse of the talks, after all, their core demands are far apart, but I didn't expect it so quickly. This morning, there were reports that both sides would hold a fourth round of negotiations. As expected, “all losses are thanks to Trump!”

How will the situation develop?

First, although the two sides haven't reached an agreement yet, the U.S. still left Iran a “final plan,” which is essentially another “ultimatum,” waiting for Iran’s response. So, it still depends on whether Iran will compromise at the last moment. In other words, if Iran announces soon that it will not accept this plan, the market could decline further.

Next, it is highly likely that both sides will fire again, especially after yesterday’s U.S. destroyer attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking speculation about whether the U.S. intends to use force to open the Strait. The U.S. has, after this period of intensive troop movements, completed deployment in the Middle East. The next step to watch closely is whether they will launch a ground attack.

Additionally, we should pay attention to whether Pakistan will make further efforts for a ceasefire, whether both sides will sit down again to negotiate. Anyway, the US-Iran conflict is just a back-and-forth between “war” and “peace,” repeatedly jumping between the two, harvesting retail investors’ money.

What’s the next move?

【Cryptocurrency】

Still mainly high-level trading, but don’t rush to short immediately. The market has already passed the first wave of emotional outbursts. There might be a short-term rebound, so wait for the rebound to short again at the top. But avoid trying to buy on dips for a quick rebound.

Key support level: 71,000

Key resistance level: 73,000

【Oil Market】

The breakdown of negotiations combined with yesterday’s U.S. destroyer entering the Strait of Hormuz will intensify the situation in the Persian Gulf, causing oil prices to rise accordingly. Currently, XTI perpetual contracts have surged in the short term, and next week is likely to open high again. As the old saying goes, wait until the XTI contract price gradually falls back, then before the market opens tomorrow morning, you can set up some XTI long positions to earn the time difference.

【Gold Market】

Similar to Bitcoin’s trend, a sharp rise in oil prices will inevitably increase inflation expectations. Coupled with the U.S. March CPI released on Friday hitting a recent high, gold and silver will definitely come under pressure. You can also wait until prices stabilize, then before the market opens tomorrow morning, short XAUT and XAG perpetual contracts to profit from the time difference!

Breaking news, that’s all for now. Hope everyone’s wallets can avoid the targeted missile strikes of the US-Iran conflict. Keep going strong, making money every day!