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Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen a truly interesting pattern in Bitcoin’s movements. When the U.S.-Iran conflict began, Bitcoin was sold off first, dropping sharply by 8.5%. But what happened afterward was really impressive.
After the initial shock, Bitcoin continued to recover by forming higher lows. After hitting a bottom at $64,000 on February 28, whenever each piece of bad news surfaced, selling pressure appeared—but each time, buyers showed up at a higher level than before. It showed a chart pattern of progressively higher lows: March 2 at $66,000, March 7 at $68,000, March 12 at $69,400, and most recently at $70,596. Looking at the trendlines of these rising lows, they rise by about $1,000 to $2,000 with each event. Although it’s currently facing resistance in the $73,000–$74,000 range, this compression will ultimately have to break through that resistance line for the pressure to be resolved.
What’s especially worth noting is the relative performance versus other assets over the same two weeks. Oil rose by more than 40%, the S&P 500 fell, and gold showed bidirectional volatility. Asian stock markets recorded the worst week since March 2020. Yet Bitcoin outperformed all of these assets. Rather than acting as a traditional safe haven, it seems to have served as a liquidity pool operating 24/7 and absorbed geopolitical shocks far faster than other markets.
What’s even more clear is when you compare it with the situation in early February. Back then, it crashed from $77,000, and in a single day, $25 billion in leverage was liquidated, while $80 billion in market cap evaporated. It looked like that event would undermine market confidence for a long time. But paradoxically, it seems that the most vulnerable positions were cleared out during that process, and the market became more resilient. At least, the forced selling of the same scale hasn’t repeated during this conflict.
In the end, it makes us rethink what Bitcoin really is. It isn’t a safe asset, nor is it purely a risky asset. Because it’s the only asset that’s always traded, it seems to have turned into a global liquidity pool that reflects any shock in price faster than any other market and then recovers. The chart pattern shows this well, too: each time, buyers meet it at higher lows, and the structure gradually moves upward. That’s the most interesting signal Bitcoin is showing right now.