The "Ice and Fire" at the Negotiation Table and Battlefield—Start of Islamabad Talks, Middle East Situation Still at a Crossroads

Early morning on April 11, local time, Pakistan officially confirmed that U.S.-Iran negotiations would be held that day at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad. Just hours before the negotiations began, Iran issued a final-ultimatum-like tough statement—if an agreement acceptable to both Iran and the resistance forces is not reached, and fighting reignites, Iran will launch a "destructive strike" against Israel and U.S. interests in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Israel's large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon have resulted in over 350 deaths, the Strait of Hormuz remains under strict control, and Houthi forces claim to have attacked a U.S. aircraft carrier. Between the negotiation table and the battlefield, a game of "Ice and Fire" is unfolding simultaneously.
1. Islamabad: Opening of U.S.-Iran Negotiations and "Hard Battle"
Under the tight deployment of over 10k security personnel by Pakistan, the U.S.-Iran negotiations commenced at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad. The Iranian delegation was led by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, Central Bank Governor Hemmati, and experts in security, politics, military, economy, and law. The U.S. delegation was led by Vice President Kamala Harris, including Presidential Envoy Robert Malley and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.
The statements made by both sides before the negotiations indicated this would be a "hard battle."
Iran’s position is firm. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explicitly outlined "three points" in a written statement: aggressors must compensate for damages; management of the Strait of Hormuz will enter a new phase; Iran will never give up its legitimate rights and views all regional "resistance fronts" as a whole. Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri confirmed that Iran will base negotiations on the previously proposed "Ten-Point Plan," including recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian also emphasized that a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. applies equally to Lebanon, and Israel must stop its military actions against Lebanon.
The U.S. also entered negotiations with a tough stance. Trump stated that if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached, the U.S. will intensify military actions, with the U.S. "re-deploying" and equipping warships with "the most advanced weapons." He also bluntly said Iran has "no cards left" besides controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Harris warned Iran not to try to "play tricks" on the U.S., but also said that if Iran is willing to negotiate in good faith, the U.S. will remain open.
Regarding the format of the negotiations, it is still uncertain whether there will be direct face-to-face talks. Some reports suggest that the U.S. and Iran may first meet separately with Pakistan before deciding whether to proceed to direct negotiations. Trump predicted that the outcome of the negotiations would be clear within 24 hours.
2. Lebanon: Fire Unextinguished, Ceasefire Not Yet Achieved
Outside the Islamabad negotiation table, smoke still lingers over Lebanon.
Since Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon, casualties have continued to rise. According to the latest statistics from the Lebanese Ministry of Health, Israel’s airstrikes on April 8 caused 357 deaths and 1,223 injuries. Since the resumption of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel on March 2, Israeli attacks have resulted in 1,953 deaths, 6,303 injuries, and over one million people displaced. On the eve of the negotiations, Israel launched an airstrike on the southern Lebanese city of Nabatiyeh, killing 13 security