Because I predicted a big drop, I kept adding to my short positions around 740-730. This kind of approach is very high risk, but I firmly believe in my prediction. I set the stop loss near the previous high of 760, preparing to ride a major drop at the daily and weekly level—one that’s equivalent to several months’ worth of profits.

Bitcoin has risen to around 738, which should already be the limit of its recent upward move. Each time the increase keeps getting smaller, and it’s becoming more and more lackluster.

With the progress in the US-Iran negotiations, there are only two outcomes: either a deal is reached—although I think the chances are very small, and the positive news has already been fully priced in. From around 650 when the war started to around 738, it goes against the trend, just like the Russia-Ukraine war. Or, if no deal is reached, it will be bearish and drop.

On top of that, with oil pulling back and gold stabilizing again, BlackRock’s “disaster” risk increasing, and inflation rebounding from 2.4 to 3.3, overall it’s also bearish.

I estimate that next week, possibly in April, a big drop could be triggered. First, we’ll see 670–650. If it falls hard, we’ll most likely be able to see Bitcoin in the 50,000s.

Waiting for time to validate my prediction.

$BTC ‌