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All the key points about the trend line revolve around 【consensus】— how many people believe in it, and whether they go long or short near the line. The fact that so many people are discussing this line indicates 【consensus】, which means it will have an effect. The effects include: support, resistance, genuine breakouts, and false breakouts.
It seems that recently there has been quite a bit of discussion in the community about this trend line. I discussed it with AI and summarized a few opinions:
Two points connected are just “subjective guesses”: On the chart, you can randomly find two high points or low points and connect them with a straight line. But remember, this is just your personal “wishful thinking.” The line drawn between these two points does not guarantee that the price will still obey it when it reaches there for the third time.
Three points are needed to “confirm” a line: A truly valuable trend line must have at least three clear contact points. The first two points are just our “hypotheses.” Only when the price tests this line a third time and is genuinely blocked by large market funds (triggering a rebound or pullback) does this hypothesis become valid. The third point is the market giving you “confirmation evidence.”
Trend lines are not “lasers,” but “buffer zones”: Never treat trend lines as absolutely precise geometric lines. The real market is full of emotions and noise, and trend lines rarely perform perfectly. Sometimes the price doesn’t touch the line and turns back; other times it deliberately pierces through, creating a “false move” to shake people out. So, think of trend lines as a “region” or “rubber band” with width, allowing for more tolerance.
The real purpose is to “provide an observation area,” not “blindly open positions”: Since trend lines are not 100% perfect, we shouldn’t open trades blindly when the price touches the line. The biggest role of this line is to mark a key focus area in the vast market. When the price approaches this area, what we should do is not immediately pull the trigger, but open our eyes wide and observe whether the price shows obvious pauses or reversal signals here.
Actually, from a bearish perspective, using trend lines is about verifying the third and fourth points. Their role isn’t very big; what’s more important is the 1-2-3 rule—can the dense chip accumulation zone break through or be resisted?