It is surprisingly important for understanding recent Bitcoin market trends that the United States has been almost unaffected by the Iran conflict.

Tensions in the Middle East have caused crude oil prices to surge past $100 per barrel, significantly impacting Asian markets. The Nikkei average has fallen by 10%, India’s Nifty index by 5%, and South Korea’s KOSPI by over 16%. Despite this, Bitcoin is currently trading around $73,500 and remains relatively steady, showing little change from before the conflict.

The underlying reason for this is U.S. energy independence. As JPMorgan analysts point out, the U.S. does not have substantial exposure to Iranian oil and instead is the world’s largest net oil exporter. Imports mainly come from Canada and Mexico, with only about 4% from Saudi Arabia. In other words, U.S. stocks are relatively strong, and Bitcoin is moving in tandem with that.

Another important point is that Bitcoin has shifted from being a global asset to a U.S. risk asset. The advent of spot ETFs has expanded institutional access, and its correlation with Wall Street, tech stocks, and the dollar has strengthened. Expectations of deregulation following Trump’s potential election in late 2024 have also accelerated this trend. Therefore, even if Asian markets shake, as long as the U.S. remains unscathed, Bitcoin is likely to remain unaffected.

However, caution is needed in the long term. Even if the U.S. is energy self-sufficient, a sudden spike in crude oil prices can eventually be reflected in gasoline prices and ultimately impact consumer prices. In the short term, U.S. markets and Bitcoin seem to be weathering the initial shock relatively unscathed, but if the conflict prolongs, the situation could change.

Interestingly, it has been revealed that SpaceX holds about 8,285 Bitcoin (worth approximately $600 million at current prices) on Coinbase Prime. Despite reporting a loss of around $5 billion in 2025, the company has not changed its Bitcoin holdings since mid-2024, which suggests confidence in Bitcoin as an asset. This indicates a continued commitment to holding Bitcoin ahead of their planned IPO.