When I look at recent Bitcoin price movements, I think a somewhat interesting phenomenon is happening. Despite the Middle East conflict driving oil prices to surge to over 100 dollars, BTC remains almost flat around 73.6K. Normally, in times of crisis, crypto assets would likely be sold off too.

The background to this is actually the U.S. energy strategy（表現として）. As JPMorgan’s strategists point out, the U.S. has no substantial exposure to Iranian oil. Its imports are mainly from Canada and Mexico, with only 4% coming from Saudi Arabia. In fact, it is now positioned as the world’s largest net crude oil exporter.

That’s why Asian markets are taking a major hit. The Nikkei Average has fallen 10%, India’s Nifty is down 5%, and Korea’s KOSPI has dropped by more than 16%. But U.S. stocks are relatively resilient. And Bitcoin is also tracking that trend.

It’s probably because oil price movements have a limited impact on the U.S. that Wall Street’s risk tolerance is being maintained. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed by institutional investors less as a purely global asset and more as a U.S. risk asset. Since the introduction of spot ETFs, this trend has accelerated.

Another factor is that the crypto market has been recovering from an oversold condition. It had dropped to around 60K before the conflict, and I think the sell-off of short-term sellers has been wiped out, stabilizing the foundation.

However, caution is necessary in the long run. Even if the U.S. becomes energy independent, there is a lag before rising oil prices show up at gas stations. If the conflict drags on and oil prices remain persistently high, there is still the possibility that it will eventually spill over into consumer inflation. For now, the U.S. market and Bitcoin appear to have weathered the initial shock unscathed, but how long this setup can last depends on developments in the Middle East and the direction of oil prices.